- On April 20, two Iranian supertankers crossed a U.S.-designated blockade into the Arabian Sea, part of 34 vessels that have breached the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade's inception.
- The two ships can carry up to 4 million barrels of oil, highlighting the limitations of U.S. efforts to curb Iranian oil exports, despite President Trump's announcement of an indefinite ceasefire with Iran while maintaining the blockade.
- Approximately 800 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, with the International Maritime Organization developing evacuation plans contingent on a reduction of tensions.
- The U.S. Navy's potential comprehensive export blockade could lead Iran to cut oil production within 15 days, halting approximately 1.9 million barrels per day by around May 20.
- Iran currently has about 40 million barrels of usable storage capacity, creating a critical 16-day window before production cuts become necessary due to storage limitations.
- The looming blockade could severely impact Iran's economy, disrupting over 80% of its export revenue, while Iran may seek to respond through regional conflicts and resilience strategies.