Application Software

Circle

Today’s Key News Recap

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1217 | Dolphin Research Watchlist. 🐬 Stock 1: $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)On Dec 17, Xiaomi partner and Group President Lu Weibing said at the 2025 Xiaomi 'Human-Car-Home' ecosystem partner conference that the company will invest RMB 200 bn in R&amp;D over the next five years. It expects to spend approx. RMB 40 bn in 2026.Funds will target consumer electronics, smart EVs, on-device AI, and upstream smart manufacturing. This supports its 'Human-Car-Home' strategy and ambition to be a global hard-tech leader...

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Xiaomi commits RMB 200 bn to R&D; BYD ramps up internal testing for L3 mass production | Daily News Recap

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1215 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector. MIIT granted the first L3 autonomous driving type approvals to Changan's Deepal SL03 and ARCFOX Alpha S6. The two models, tailored to urban congestion and highway scenarios, will run public-road pilots in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing, marking a move from tech testing to commercial pilots for L3 in China.NBS data show Nov. retail sales of consumer goods at RMB 4.3898tn (+1.3% YoY). That is the lowest monthly growth since 2023 in the post-Covid period...

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First L3 autonomous-driving models approved; retail sales growth retests the lows | Daily News Recap

Conference Minutes

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The following are the Minutes of the $Citigroup(C.US)ircle (CRCL.US) FY25 Q3 earnings call. For a quick interpretation, you can simply review the Quick Interpretation of the financial report. 1. Financial Core Data Review: (1) Performance Overview: USDC circulation reached $73.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 108%; on-chain transaction volume was $9.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 580%. (2) Profitability: Total revenue and reserve earnings were $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%; Adjusted EBITDA was $166 million, a year-on-year increase of 78%. The profit margin reached 57%...

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Circle (Minutes): The Ecological Network is More Important than Commercialization

Circle 3Q25 Quick Interpretation: Circle's third-quarter performance overall exceeded BBG consensus expectations, but the guidance upgrade was not aggressive enough. If not deliberately conservative, some indicators imply a slowdown or underperformance in Q4. Additionally, considering that not many institutions cover Circle, BBG expectations may differ from actual market expectations. Therefore, Dolphin Research will also look at Circle's actual performance from its own trend perspective.1. USDC ecosystem accelerates expansion, but guidance remains unchanged: This is subjectively considered by Dolphin Research as the only key indicator, but it is also relatively transparent. At the end of Q3, the circulating balance of USDC was $73.7 billion, further increasing its market share in the stablecoin market to 29%.Circle's valuation is built on future growth expectations, which means investors need to have a strong heart for short-term and even medium-term fluctuations. Although the market may still be concerned about short-term performance, Dolphin Research believes that the most critical indicator during the high-speed expansion phase is the size of the ecosystem. Especially for a 'currency,' a small ecosystem means failure. Therefore, regardless of short-term revenue or profit, the scale of USDC has always been the most critical indicator. However, because this is more market data-oriented, it is relatively easy to track. According to Coinkecgo data, USDC's market value showed significant accelerated growth in July and August, but slowed down in September. However, the company's guidance for future years' growth CAGR remains at 40%, unchanged from the previous quarter, which Dolphin Research is not satisfied with. Not to mention that market expectations have already been raised by the guidance given last quarter, this guidance can no longer satisfy the market's more optimistic sentiment. More importantly, since the third quarter, market competition has actually intensified, with more 'stablecoin' suppliers ready to launch. Therefore, only by more aggressively issuing USDC and increasing more channel cooperation can we align with our long-term growth expectations.2. Other income exceeds expectations, but Q4 may weaken: Other income once again exceeded expectations, mainly driven by CPN services in addition to issuance income. By the end of Q3, a total of 29 financial institutions had joined the CPN system, with another 55 institutions under review and 500 preparing to join. At the end of October, Circle launched the Arc public test network, with over 100 companies participating in the test. Arc is a set of Layer-1 blockchain technology developed by Circle, intended to establish a full-stack fintech platform. The company raised its full-year guidance to 0.9-1 billion, but implied Q4 other income of 0.17-0.27 billion, a sequential decline from Q3. This can be monitored in the conference call, and Dolphin Research tends to believe the guidance is deliberately conservative. 3. Increasing self-holding ratio to hedge against increased channel sharing: In the third quarter, Circle increased its distribution channels, such as Brex, Deutsche Börse Group, Finastra, Fireblocks, Hyperliquid, Kraken, and Visa, but Q3 gross margin (RLDC) was 39.5%, still up 1.3ppt sequentially. One reason is that Circle quickly increased its internal self-holding ratio from 7.4% in Q2 to 13.8% in Q3. As a result, the proportion of USDC held by the largest 'vassal' Coinbase fell from 23% in the second quarter to 20% in the third quarter, reducing the drag on gross margin. The company adjusted its full-year 2025 gross margin guidance from 36-38% directly to 38%, implying a slight decline in Q4. This means that external channel cooperation will continue to increase. From Dolphin Research's perspective, compared to sticking to gross margin, we are more in favor of opening up cooperation and pursuing long-term win-win. 4. Significant increase in expenses, mainly SBC: Q3 expenses increased by 70% year-on-year, with employee benefits naturally being the main growth driver, but other infrastructure-related expenses also grew significantly. Employee expenses increased by nearly $0.5 billion sequentially, mostly driven by SBC (up $0.48 billion sequentially). Excluding this, Adj. EBITDA margin rebounded to 22.5%. The company's guidance slightly increased for overall expenses, implying Q4 operating expenses of 1.4 billion, slightly exceeding market expectations. This does not include SBC, and the investment in infrastructure expenses has slightly increased, which Dolphin Research tends to view neutrally. Equity dilution is one of the important factors putting pressure on Circle's stock price. Last quarter's report led to a sudden collapse after the financial report due to a sudden issuance. Although we remain optimistic about Circle's long-term prospects, Circle's IPO lock-up will be lifted early next month, and short-term volatility risks should be avoided. $Circle(CRCL.US)

Square/Block

Financial Analysis

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On November 7th, after the U.S. stock market closed, Block (XYZ.US), a leading player in the U.S. payment sector, released its financial report for the third quarter of 2025. Overall, the performance this quarter was not poor. The core revenue, excluding Bitcoin trading business, and the adjusted net profit both exceeded expectations. The guidance for the next quarter also basically met expectations, with no significant flaws in the performance. The sharp drop in stock price was more due to macro market reasons. The key points are as follows: 1. Core revenue and profit slightly exceeded expectations: This quarter, Block's core revenue, excluding Bitcoin, grew by 17% year-on-year...

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Plummeting 15%, North America's Alipay Block 'not guilty of this'

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Block 3Q25 Quick Interpretation: Overall, the company's performance this quarter was not bad. Although at first glance, total revenue and GAAP operating profit were below expectations, the former was dragged down by the Bitcoin trading business, which has high revenue but very low profit impact. Core revenue actually exceeded expectations. Similarly, the adjusted operating profit, which is more closely watched by the market and the company, also exceeded expectations. The company's guidance for 4Q, while not particularly outstanding, was generally in line with or slightly better than expectations. Therefore, Dolphin Research believes that the post-earnings plunge was more due to the overall decline in the US stock market. As long as the performance is not perfect and significantly exceeds expectations, the trend is generally downward. As a member of the cryptocurrency/stablecoin concept, the company's elasticity is relatively greater. Similarly, Hood and Circle also experienced similar declines yesterday, despite Hood's strong performance. Specifically: 1) Core revenue, excluding Bitcoin trading, grew by 17% year-on-year this quarter, significantly accelerating from 10% last quarter and better than expected. Adjusted operating profit was $480 million, also better than expected. The downside is that the year-on-year growth rates of revenue, gross profit, and adjusted profit are gradually slowing down, and the company's operating leverage is currently negatively amplifying. 2) In the Square segment, the total payment volume (TPV) grew by 12.2% year-on-year this quarter, accelerating by 2 percentage points from last quarter. The trend is also positive. The downside is that the gross profit of the Square segment grew by 9% year-on-year, which is slower than the TPV growth rate, indicating that the company has not been able to obtain proportional profit from the increased business volume. 3) In the Cash App segment, the gross profit excluding Bitcoin business grew by 25% year-on-year this quarter, accelerating by nearly 10 percentage points from last quarter, also showing strong performance. On the underlying metrics, the number of active users this quarter finally increased to 58 million after staying at 57 million for six quarters. The amount of funds flowing into the app reached $78.8 billion, also setting a new historical high. 4) Although the Bitcoin segment performed poorly despite the industry's recovery, its impact on profit is minimal. $Block(SQ.US)

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The following are the minutes of the earnings call for $Coinbase(COIN.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For a review of the third-quarter financial report, please refer to &#34;Coinbase: Short-term Recovery Within Expectations, Long-term Ecosystem Still Needs Accelerated Expansion.&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Information: Overall Performance: The company achieved total revenue of approximately $1.9 billion in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $801 million. The company recorded a fair value revaluation gain of $424 million on its crypto investment portfolio this quarter, with $381 million included in other expense items...

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Coinbase (Minutes): Driving comprehensive asset on-chain around 'Trading and Payment'

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In the early morning of October 30th Beijing time, after the US stock market closed, $Coinbase(COIN.US) released its Q3 2025 financial report. Overall, the slight outperformance in trading revenue led to a noticeable recovery in overall revenue and profit. The cryptocurrency market saw some recovery quarter-on-quarter in Q3, and Coinbase completed the consolidation of Deribit and launched perpetual futures for cryptocurrencies, which increased the market share of derivatives trading in Q3. Additionally, during the earnings call, management's outlook on launching banking payment services in Germany further stimulated Coinbase's trading sentiment...

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Coinbase: Short-term recovery expected, long-term ecosystem still needs accelerated expansion

The following are the minutes of the FY25 Q2 earnings call for $Circle(CRCL.US). For an interpretation of the financial report, please refer to &#34;Circle: Making or Losing Money is a Minor Issue, the Ecosystem is the Main Artery!&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Information (1) Guidance and Future Outlook: ◦ The company does not provide short-term quarterly guidance but offers a full-year key metrics outlook. It is expected that the total revenue for 2025 will exceed previous expectations, with the core model for USDC's compound annual growth rate at 40%. ◦ Other income for 2025 is expected to be between $75 million and $85 million...

CIRCLE (Minutes): Continue to expand usage scenarios and distribution channels

Before the market opened on August 12th, Eastern Time, the first stablecoin stock $Circle(CRCL.US) released its first financial report since going public. For this financial report, short-term performance is not the focus. The primary goal at present is to increase distribution channels and expand application scenarios to jointly grow the USDC ecosystem. This means that necessary cost concessions and expense investments are indispensable, and thus the profit figures will inevitably continue to look unattractive. Therefore, the core of this financial report lies in the company's short-term and long-term strategic changes and future outlook. Coincidentally, the management provided an annual guidance in the second-quarter report...

Circle: Making or losing a little money is trivial; the ecosystem is the main artery!

Brazil's Cryptocurrency Activity Grows 43%, Average User Investment Surpasses $1000

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock price increases by 6.35%

US Bipartisan Lawmakers Propose 'Digital Asset PARITY Act' for Cryptocurrency Tax Framework

Prominent investor Cathie Wood's Ark Invest adds to its position in Circle (CRCL) stock.

HC Wainwright Upgrades Circle (CRCL) to 'Hold' Rating

Wall Street Analyst Believes Circle Stock is Deeply Undervalued, Sets $280 Price Target

Korean Legislator Calls for Rapid Institutionalization of Stablecoins

Farcaster Launches USDC Lending Service

US-listed cryptocurrency concept stocks rally, with Circle's stock price rising over 3%

Analyst Initiates Coverage on Circle (CRCL) with 'Neutral' Rating and $85 Price Target

Financial giants show a clear bullish stance on Circle Internet Group

Industry Advocacy Group Opposes Expansion of Stablecoin Yield Ban to Application Layer

Circle's Stock Price Rises 5.9% Following Quarterly Earnings Beat

Binance Founder Comments on Privacy Concerns as USDC Transfers Reportedly Expose Wallet History

U.S. Plans to Strengthen GENIUS Act Regulation, Benefiting Stablecoin Issuers

Cryptocurrency-related stocks rise in pre-market trading as Bitcoin price increases

H.C. Wainwright Initiates Coverage on Circle Internet Group with a Neutral Rating.

Citigroup maintains Circle (CRCL) as its top pick in the digital asset sector with a $243 price target

OpenMind and Circle jointly release product update, enabling robot self-recharging with USDC payments