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New Oriental EDU & Tech

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1029 | Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. On October 28th, Eastern US time, the Federal Reserve began its two-day FOMC meeting, with the latest interest rate decision to be announced on the afternoon of the 29th local time (early morning of the 30th Beijing time). The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut, with the focus on whether the balance sheet reduction will end and the policy signals for December. Due to the government shutdown, the absence of key data such as employment, and significant internal disagreements on inflation risks and the pace of easing, some officials are concerned that a rate cut may exacerbate price pressures. 2. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: As agreed by both China and the US...

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The meeting between China and the U.S. is approaching; focus on tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision | Today's Important News Recap

New Oriental

Conference Minutes

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The following is a summary compiled by Dolphin Research regarding the FY26 Q1 earnings call minutes of $New Oriental EDU &amp; Tech(EDU.US). For an interpretation of the financial report, please refer to &#34;Guidance Stabilized, Returns Maximized, Can New Oriental's Faith Be Restored?&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Data 1. Overall Revenue and Profit Net Income: Increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Operating Revenue: Reached $310.8 million, up 6% year-on-year. Non-GAAP Operating Revenue (excluding share-based compensation expenses and amortization of intangible assets from business acquisitions): Reached $335.5 million, up 11.3% year-on-year. Net Profit Attributable: $240.7 million...

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New Oriental (Minutes): Continue High Dividends and High Buybacks Next Year

Financial Analysis

$New Oriental EDU &amp; Tech(EDU.US) released its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 before the U.S. stock market opened on October 28, Beijing time. This corresponds to the operating conditions during the peak summer season from June 2025 to August 2025 in the calendar year. A month before the earnings report, the company had already hinted at three marginal positives: 1) shareholder returns might increase; 2) the deterioration in the study abroad business was not as severe as the market expected, leading to a revenue growth rate of 5%, slightly exceeding the guidance (growth rate of 2-5%); 3) competition faced by K9 in some cities has eased, and growth is expected to pick up starting next quarter...

Guidance stabilized, returns maximized, can the faith in New Oriental be restored?

New Oriental FY1Q26 Quick Interpretation: Overall, the third-quarter report is basically in line with expectations, including the revenue guidance for the fourth quarter. The guidance for the full year 2026 remains unchanged (revenue growth of 5%-10%), but the trends in various segments show mixed performance: 1. The two main positives in this financial report (shareholder returns, study abroad business) were already disclosed a month earlier at the preview meeting, reflected in the 20% increase during this period. (1) Shareholder Returns: The &#34;dividend floor&#34; valuation that Dolphin Research has consistently mentioned has finally exceeded expectations. Last quarter, the company announced a new shareholder return plan to use 50% of the previous year's net profit for dividends or buybacks. In Q3, the company announced a plan for $190 million in dividends and $300 million in buybacks over the next year, totaling $490 million in shareholder returns. The payout ratio reached 130% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, far exceeding the minimum baseline of 50%. Based on the market capitalization of nearly $8 billion on the day of the preview, the return rate reached 6% (currently 5%), which is indeed a good investment return in a rate-cutting cycle. (2) Study Abroad Business: Due to geopolitical risks, study abroad is a business with cautious consensus expectations in the market, originally expected to decline by 5-10%. However, revenue in USD terms actually grew by 1-2% (1% for training, 2% for consulting). Even excluding the tailwind from USD depreciation, it shows a basically stable slight decline, which is much better than Dolphin Research's actual perception. However, the hidden concerns about studying abroad have not dissipated. The resilience in the third quarter may be due to the substitution effect from non-US regions. But this often exists in the short term, and in the medium to long term, it is still closely related to geopolitical situations, with no substantial turnaround currently. Therefore, it is especially important to pay attention to the management's quantitative guidance on operations during the conference call. 2. New business performed poorly this quarter: Year-on-year growth was only 15%, compared to over 30% last quarter. According to institutional research, intensified competition from local institutions in some cities has had a short-term impact. However, judging from the trend in the number of enrollments in non-academic courses and the number of learning device subscriptions (accelerating growth), the current performance should be temporary, and growth is expected to recover next quarter. For specific details and outlook, please refer to the conference call. 3. Continued strict control of costs and expenses: Core operating profit for the third quarter was $311 million, with an operating profit margin of 20.4%, flat year-on-year. From a Non-GAAP perspective excluding stock-based compensation, the profit margin improved by 1 point year-on-year. The company stated that it will continue to control costs to ensure profitability.

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1027 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. On October 25-26 local time, China and the United States held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. The two sides reached a preliminary consensus on properly addressing several important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, and the next step will be to go through their respective domestic approval procedures. The easing signals in China-US economic and trade relations help to restore market risk appetite, coupled with positive signals from macroeconomic data, leading to a collective surge in Hong Kong and A-shares today...

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Both Hong Kong and A-shares Rise; Meituan Officially Releases and Opens Source Its Video Generation Model | Today's Important News Recap

Focus on profitability rather than revenue.

New Oriental (Minutes): Study abroad expectations are cautious, and the slowdown in quality education is a seasonal fluctuation.

$New Oriental EDU &amp; Tech(EDU.US) released its Q4 FY2025 earnings before the U.S. market opened on July 30th, Beijing time, corresponding to the off-season operating conditions from March 2025 to May 2025. This earnings review remains focused on the education business, with a key emphasis on guidance, including expectations for the full year 2026. Specifically, the outlook for the study abroad business is of utmost importance, followed by trends in the prosperity of new businesses. Beyond business, attention is also on changes in shareholder returns. Specifically: 1. Another &#34;bomb&#34; in guidance: Given the turbulent environment...

New Oriental’s Thunderous Roar: The Uphill Road to Rebirth

New Oriental 4Q25FY Quick Interpretation: The major pitfall in this performance lies in the guidance, including revenue guidance for the next quarter and the entire fiscal year 2026, both weaker than market expectations, possibly due to the management's cautious conservatism.This time, there is no separate guidance for education revenue, so the extent of the drag from e-commerce still needs to be explained by the management in terms of detailed business conditions.However, in the short term, it will undoubtedly hit market confidence again. The only consolation is that the progress in cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and increasing shareholder returns has exceeded expectations. As with the feeling from the last quarter, although New Oriental's current valuation is not high, until the fundamental concerns are resolved, we can only look at the valuation opportunities of the 'dividend bottom'.1. Guidance 'bomb': Current performance exceeds guidance and expectations. However, management's revenue growth guidance for 1Q26 and the entire year 2026 is below expectations—next quarter growth rate of 2-5%, and nearly 5-10% growth for the year, while the market still expects a normal increase of over 10%.2. Where are the concerns?: Since the total revenue expectation is given this time, it is difficult to clearly determine which specific area has issues. Dolphin Research speculates that it is mainly study abroad and live-streaming e-commerce.Dolphin Research has always been conservative about e-commerce expectations, and both 4Q25 and 1Q26 are still in the pain period of the year-on-year base after Dong Yuhui's breakup (down 30%), with Q4 performance also below expectations.We are mainly concerned about the study abroad business (which has a greater impact on the group's valuation in our model).This quarter's study abroad performance (test preparation growth rate of 15%, consulting growth rate of 8%) is actually not as bad as we expected. But after tariffs, escalation of confrontation, and visa approval slowdown, all have suppressed the demand for studying in the United States. Consulting demand often leads test preparation, indicating short-term future pressure on study abroad business demand.3. Other businesses temporarily stable: Other businesses, apart from the above, are performing normally for now. However, it is worth noting that the growth rate of enrollment in quality training has significantly declined again, possibly due to the impact of holiday misalignment, so the growth this season mainly relies on the increase in customer unit price.4. Efficiency improvement within the group: Q4 profitability performance, after excluding the impact of goodwill impairment, is actually slightly above expectations, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 6.6%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year. Last quarter, management also made statements about improving input efficiency and optimizing cost expenditures. $NEW ORIENTAL-S(09901.HK)$New Oriental EDU &amp; Tech(EDU.US)

INTR

Below is the earnings call $New Oriental EDU &amp; Tech(EDU.US) FY25 Q1 Minutes. For the Quick Interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to《New Oriental: Just Out of the &#34;Breakup Pit&#34; and Hit by the &#34;Tariff Hammer&#34;, Can Non-Academic Training Hold the Fort?》1. Key Earnings Highlights 1. Revenue: Total net profit decreased by 2% YoY. Excluding the core education revenue generated by the Oriental Selection business, it increased by 21.2% YoY. 2. Operating Margin: Operating margin was 12.1%, and Non-GAAP operating margin (excluding the Non-GAAP operating profit generated by the Oriental Selection business) was 13.3%...

Inter

New Oriental (Minutes): Guidance is a conservative estimate, with the focus next year on improving efficiency.

$New Oriental EDU &amp; Tech(EDU.US) On April 23rd, Beijing time, the company released its performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025 before the U.S. stock market opened, corresponding to the operational situation during the peak winter vacation season from December 2024 to February 2025. This performance review still focuses on the education business, with the emphasis on guidance. In particular, under the geopolitical risks triggered by tariffs, the growth prospects of the study abroad business have become more uncertain. Specifically: 1. The guidance is poor, and some pricing is most concerned about the guidance, but the guidance is the most &#34;disappointing.&#34; Compared to the company's adjusted expectations at the end of March, the Q3 performance basically meets expectations...

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New Oriental paid a special cash dividend of $0.60 on December 5.

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Hang Seng Indexes Company announces quarterly review results; New Oriental will be removed from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.

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New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (09901.HK, EDU.US) Q2 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (09901.HK, EDU.US) First Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call

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Please note that a "Suspected value trap" is a stock that appears The stock looks financially sound and severely undervalued, but behind the low valuation is a long-term decline in business capacity or a serious financial crisis, or even the risk of bankruptcy in the short term.

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