FRESHPET

$FRESHPET(FRPT.US) -6% today after delivering FY’26 guidance largely in line with consensus after adjusting for the 1Q rev beat. Specifically, FRPT sees deceleration in FY 2026 rev growth of +8%-11% vs +7-10% prior guidance and vs +9% consensus, and no change in its FY’26 EBITDA forecast of $205M-$215M vs $211M est, despite +13% rev growth in 1Q (vs +11% exp), and a modest beat in 1Q EBITDA ($37.9M vs $36.9M consensus). 2Q consumption trends continue to decelerate from 1Q (see below), and with a likely tough 3Q compare (2025 3Q rev +14%) due to last year’s 3Q Sam’s Club buy-in, may explain mgmt’s relatively weak FY’26 rev guide (+8-11%) vs +13% in 1Q.

At a 2026 P/E of 42x and 2026 EV/EBITDA of 14x vs 5-year proj. rev growth of +9% and 5-year proj. EBITDA growth of +18%, FRPT is neither super-expensive nor super-cheap. With 13.1% short interest, the stock is becoming a crowded short.