Cambria Global Asset Alloc

After hitting a four-year low in FY24, AMAT's TSMC revenue recovered well and hit an all-time high in FY25, driven by leading-edge logic. Its TSMC revenue grew 80% y/y in FY25, Samsung revenue up 31% and China down -16%. TSMC accounted for nearly 40% of AMAT's foundry/logic revenue in FY25. AMAT had $4.5B in GAA (gate-all-around) revenue and most of that is driven by TSMC. GAA capacity still has a long ramp ahead and will likely triple from current industry capacity. AMAT claims over 50% share of the GAA and backside power SAM, with roughly 30% incremental revenue per fab for GAA versus FinFET.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

AMAT admits share losses in C25 (up to 200bps but could be more) as some competitors like Lam outperformed WFE by a big margin. Domestic China tool vendor progress and ICAPS (mature nodes) weakness are key drivers of share losses. DRAM and leading-edge logic remain area of strength though AMAT reduced its GAA guidance for F25 by 10%.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

ASMI implied some upside opportunities in 2025 which could drive its revenue to the higher end of the guidance (20%). China upside, mature node rebound, higher HBM (if adv pkg constraints ease), GAA adds (if yields improve) and 200mm SiC adds (if EV demand improves).

Source: Sravan Kundojjala