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Panics about the rising US deficit have stirred up bond vigilantes before. An economist thinks concerns about military spending are driving yields higher.

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A former IMF economist says he's worried that military spending will widen the US deficit and jack up borrowing costs

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Circle's USYC token has surpassed BlackRock's BUIDL fund, becoming the largest tokenized U.S. Treasury product with a supply of approximately $2.2 billion. This growth is largely attributed to its integration on BNB Chain, where Binance has introduced it as off-exchange collateral for institutional derivatives trading. The overall market for tokenized U.S. Treasuries has reached a record $11 billion, reflecting a 27% increase this year, driven by investor demand for yield amid the crypto downturn.

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Circle overtakes BlackRock in tokenized Treasuries as market hits record $11 billion

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Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates amid rising inflation and a weak economy. Chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen forecasts only one rate cut this year, likely in autumn, and another in 2027, keeping the terminal rate between 3% and 3.25%. The bank advises a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury duration and notes potential downside risks for the U.S. dollar if the Fed overlooks energy-driven inflation.

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Don't Expect Interest Rate Cuts Anytime Soon, Says Morgan Stanley (MS)

Investors weigh the downward revision of the U.S. fourth-quarter domestic economic growth data, leading to a decline in the yield of the two-year Treasury bond. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell by 4.3 basis points to 3.719%. The yield on the ten-year bond remained at 4.273%. The yield on the thirty-year bond rose by 1.7 basis points to 4.902%

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"Debt Market" assesses the downward revision of the U.S. GDP for the last quarter, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield declining

In a report, Jane Foley of Rabobank indicated that the US dollar may strengthen further due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The dollar's rise since the conflict began suggests it retains its safe-haven status, despite previous concerns following its decline last year. Foley highlighted uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions amid rising energy prices, but noted that the US's position as an oil exporter could enhance its trade terms.

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Rabobank: Middle East conflict may continue to support the US dollar

US dollar index little changed after US data, last up 0.35% at 100.04

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US dollar index little changed after US data, last up 0.35% at 100.04

The greenback strengthened to its highest level in more than three months. Investors are seeking out safe-haven assets during the war.

Dollar extends gains as Iran conflict shows no signs of abating

The US dollar has seen a resurgence, driven by hawkish interest rate expectations and safe haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. Initially, the dollar weakened due to rising oil prices and optimistic comments about the war's end. However, reports of Iranian military actions reignited concerns, leading to renewed strength in the dollar. The market is currently pricing in potential Federal Reserve easing, with two scenarios ahead: prolonged conflict leading to economic recession or a quick resolution resulting in further dollar appreciation. The dollar's short-term gains may continue as market positions unwind.

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Why the US dollar is skyrocketing if rate hike bets increase for other central banks?

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The EMEA Morning Briefing highlights economic risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran. European stock futures rose while Asian markets fell, with the dollar strengthening slightly. Analysts predict continued volatility in equity markets due to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. U.S. Treasury yields decreased amid inflation concerns, and oil prices are expected to remain high due to supply disruptions. Gold prices fell as the conflict persists, while iron ore gained amid liquidity concerns. The financial sector faces pressure from rising bond yields and instability in private-credit markets.

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EMEA Morning Briefing: Economic Risks of Iran War Build

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The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 0.028 percentage points to 4.884%, marking its third consecutive day of gains. Over the last three trading days, the yield has risen by 0.146 percentage points, the largest increase since July 15, 2025. It has risen in eight of the past nine trading days and is currently the fifth highest yield this year. The yield is 0.204 percentage points below its 52-week high of 5.089% and 0.493 percentage points above its 52-week low of 4.391%. Year-to-date, the yield is up 0.055 percentage points.

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30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.884% — Data Talk

U.S. Treasury bonds are likened to a bad boyfriend by finance expert Martha Gimbel, who notes that investors are hesitant to leave due to limited options. Despite a declining allure, the U.S. Treasury market remains attractive due to its liquidity. Concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook persist, with a projected budget deficit averaging over 6% of GDP through 2036. Experts urge Congress to address the deficit sustainably, while the ongoing conflict with Iran may further widen the deficit. The situation reflects a K-shaped economy, where wealth disparities continue to grow.

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U.S. Treasurys look like the bad boyfriend at the start of a Hallmark movie, finance expert says

On Thursday (March 12), at the New York close, the ICE Dollar Index rose by 0.50%, reporting 99.750 points, remaining in an upward trend throughout the day, with a prolonged rise starting before 20:00 Beijing time. The Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.50%, reporting 1208.86 points

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A key inflation gauge, the one-year break-even inflation rate, has reached 4.62%, the highest since June 2022, amid rising concerns over inflation due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. This increase reflects market fears of persistent inflation, with the two-year break-even rate also rising to 3.18%. The situation poses challenges for investors, particularly retirees, as yields on short-term Treasuries have climbed. The Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates may be hindered by high inflation, impacting stock markets as oil prices surge above $100 per barrel.

- Rising expectations for short-term price increases pose challenges for the Trump administration, which aims to quell inflation concerns before midterms.  
- As tensions escalate in the Middle East, key inflation indicators, such as the one-year breakeven inflation rate, have reached their highest levels since 2022, impacting both stock and bond markets.  
- Market analysts warn that sustained inflation could hinder Federal Reserve rate cuts, affecting broader economic stability and investor sentiment.

A key inflation gauge just logged its highest reading in almost 4 years

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Table-Non-competitive bids for U.S. 8-week bills

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Investors are awaiting several key economic data points and weighing the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran war. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield increased by 4.8 basis points to 3.684%. The ten-year bond yield rose by 2.6 basis points to 4.232%. The thirty-year bond yield increased by 1.2 basis points to 4.868%

Texas Capital Government Mny Mkt ETF(MMKT.US)

A former IMF economist says he's worried that military spending will widen the US deficit and jack up borrowing costs

Circle overtakes BlackRock in tokenized Treasuries as market hits record $11 billion

Don't Expect Interest Rate Cuts Anytime Soon, Says Morgan Stanley (MS)

"Debt Market" assesses the downward revision of the U.S. GDP for the last quarter, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield declining

Rabobank: Middle East conflict may continue to support the US dollar