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Goldman Sachs' latest report sounds the alarm, warning that the Iran war combined with oil price shocks could lead to a 19% drop in the S&P 500 from current levels to 5,400 points, with the price-to-earnings ratio compressing to 16 times. Although the year-end target price remains unchanged at 7,600 points, internal valuation assumptions have quietly been adjusted downward. The current capital expenditure boom is still supporting profit expectations, but high valuations combined with geopolitical risks are rapidly deteriorating the risk-reward ratio

- Goldman Sachs has issued a report highlighting potential downturns for the S&P 500 due to the Iranian conflict and high oil prices, forecasting a possible drop to 5,400 points, a 19% decline.  
- The report outlines two scenarios: a moderate growth impact could see the index fall to 6,300 points, while a severe oil price shock could lead to the more drastic prediction.  
- Although maintaining a year-end target of 7,600 points, estimates for the price-to-earnings ratio have been adjusted downwards amid rising uncertainty around geopolitical risks and economic conditions.

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Another drop of 19%? Goldman Sachs warns: If the oil price shock continues, the worst-case scenario for the S&P 500 could fall to 5,400 points

Citi pointed out that the current situation in Iran is similar to the tanker wars of the 1980s, which may impact global energy shipping routes. Despite facing geopolitical conflicts and energy shocks, the stock market may show resilience. Citi recommends that investors prioritize allocations to large-cap tech stocks, adjust their holdings structure, lower investment ratings on small-cap stocks, and suggests increasing positions after market volatility subsides

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Iran Situation | Citigroup states that the current situation is like the tanker war of the 1980s and calls for prioritizing the allocation of large American tech companies

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U.S. stock futures rose, with S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 index futures up 0.5%, and Dow futures up 0.4%

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- U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady amid concerns over the Middle East conflict and its impact on inflation and growth.  
- Investors are closely monitoring oil prices, which surged due to the conflict, affecting market sentiment and dampening expectations for rate cuts this year.  
- The Fed will release updated economic projections, and Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming press conference may provide insights on the situation's influence on monetary policy.

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Wall St Week Ahead-Investors await Fed rate outlook as Iran war keeps markets on edge

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Peter Thiel's hedge fund, Thiel Macro, sold its positions in Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple, totaling $74 million, in Q4 2025, indicating a loss of confidence in these stocks. Historically, Thiel's similar actions in 2019 led to missed gains despite avoiding losses. The S&P 500 is currently trading at a high valuation, with a CAPE ratio of 39.1, raising concerns about future performance. However, Wall Street analysts believe Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple are undervalued, suggesting potential upside for investors despite Thiel's warning.

- Thiel Macro, a hedge fund led by Peter Thiel, liquidated its $74 million positions in Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple in Q4 2025, echoing a similar decision made in Q4 2019.  
- Despite concerns about the S&P 500's historically high valuations, Wall Street analysts view Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple as undervalued, projecting significant upside potential for these stocks.  
- Thiel's mixed track record raises questions about investor confidence, especially as the S&P 500's expensive valuation could lead to a potential decline in the coming years.

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Palantir Billionaire Peter Thiel Sells 3 AI Stocks in a $74 Million Warning to Wall Street. History Says This Will Happen Next.

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The Santiment report shows that investors holding 10 to 10,000 bitcoins are increasing their positions, currently controlling 68.17% of the total supply, up from 68.07% a week ago. The platform believes that the accumulation by whales is a positive signal and is monitoring retail selling to confirm the market bottom. Additionally, Bitcoin has performed strongly compared to the S&P 500 index, which has fallen about 2.2% over the past five weeks, while Bitcoin has risen 2.4%

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Santiment: Whales holding between 10 to 10,000 Bitcoins are increasing their Bitcoin holdings

On March 15, liquidity in S&P 500 futures dropped to $5.1 million, the lowest since April 2025, reflecting a 61% decline from the average of $13 million. Goldman Sachs notes that liquidity below $7 million indicates market stress, with low liquidity potentially causing significant volatility in the S&P 500. Analysts warn that institutional trading could lead to extreme fluctuations, urging investors to exercise caution.

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S&P 500 Futures Liquidity Drops Amid Iran Conflict

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The US ETF market is approaching historical extremes, with the daily increase in short interest reaching the second highest level since 2016. The total leverage of hedge funds is close to the historical peak of 307%, and market liquidity has fallen to the level seen during last year's "tariff day" crash. Goldman Sachs warns that if there are signs of easing geopolitical tensions, a short squeeze in the indices could trigger a rapid rise of 2% to 3%; however, if the stalemate continues, the decline in retail buying combined with liquidity exhaustion will pose "serious problems" for the market

- The U.S. stock market is experiencing an unprecedented surge in ETF trading amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with ETF short positions approaching historical highs.  
- Goldman Sachs reports that the daily increase in short positions reached +10%, marking the second-largest rise since 2016, while ETF trading has constituted over 35% of total market volume for nine consecutive days.  
- There are growing concerns about extreme market volatility and liquidity issues, compounded by decreasing retail investor support and high leverage among hedge funds.

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The escalating situation in the Middle East has significantly increased pressure on global markets, with Bank of America’s cross-market risk indicator rising to 0.79, approaching last April's peak of 0.89, known as the "equivalent tariff." The MOVE index, which tracks expected bond volatility, has surged to its highest level since June of last year, while oil price volatility reached historical highs from 2020 earlier this week. The volatility of junk bonds has nearly tripled from levels seen in January of this year

- The Middle East situation is reshaping the global asset landscape, with market pressures surging to levels akin to last year's "tariff shock."  
- As of March 12, Bank of America’s cross-market risk indicator rose to 0.79, indicating significant market stress, while oil prices and financing costs skyrocketed due to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.  
- Current market pressures affect multiple asset classes, revealing vulnerabilities as financial conditions tighten and concerns grow over high-leverage assets and the implications of geopolitical supply crises.

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Crisis signs! The global market "pressure index" approaches the level of "tariff shock" in April last year

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Another drop of 19%? Goldman Sachs warns: If the oil price shock continues, the worst-case scenario for the S&P 500 could fall to 5,400 points

Iran Situation | Citigroup states that the current situation is like the tanker war of the 1980s and calls for prioritizing the allocation of large American tech companies

U.S. stock futures rose, with S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 index futures up 0.5%, and Dow futures up 0.4%

S&P 500 index futures turned positive, recovering earlier losses

Wall St Week Ahead-Investors await Fed rate outlook as Iran war keeps markets on edge