According to Taiwan's Economic Daily News, a recent report by Nomura Securities indicates that Nvidia will significantly reduce its 2025 orders for CoWoS-S packaging at TSMC and UMC due to the gradual discontinuation of Hopper GPUs and a slowdown in demand for several products. This reduction is expected to decrease TSMC's revenue by 1% to 2%. Despite supply chain denials of the cutback rumors, the stock prices of TSMC, ASE, and KYEC fell sharply, with the market attributing the weakness in AI stocks to other factors, such as a potential new AI chip export ban by the U.S.
A report from Morgan Stanley reveals that Nvidia has requested TSMC to convert some CoWoS-S capacity to CoWoS-L to produce GB300A chips. Despite these order changes, TSMC's overall CoWoS demand remains stable, and GB300A production is expected to increase later this year. Nomura Securities maintains a "buy" rating for TSMC with a target price of NT$1,400, anticipating that AI will drive TSMC's revenue growth this year, with a contribution exceeding 20%.
Nomura Securities analyst Ming-Tsung Cheng estimates TSMC's first-quarter revenue to decline by 6% quarter-on-quarter but grow by 24% year-on-year, primarily due to seasonal factors. However, increased AI GPU and ASIC capacity and the launch of Apple's new iPhone SE 4 will partially offset the seasonal impact. Despite a slow economic recovery, the downward revision in non-AI demand is expected to be limited.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)