Share your thoughtsWhat's on your mind?
A report has been widely circulated over the weekend: a significant portion of the revenue cloud providers earn from AI is unrelated to GPUs.You can think of AI model companies as stores located withi...
Software and cybersecurity stocks advanced as Salesforce's earnings and AI partnership rekindled enthusiasm for the sector, with investors rotating into application-layer names in search of the next h...
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Will this be next AL goldmine or money land mine ?
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Oracle: AI Goldmine or Cash-Flow Trap?
Project Jupiter puts Oracle firmly in the AI infrastructure race, but the price of that ambition is heavy. FY2026 revenue rose 17% to US$67.4bn, yet free cash flow swung to -US$23.7bn as capex ballooned to US$55.7bn.
The bull case remains compelling: Oracle’s backlog reached US$638bn, while management expects FY2027 revenue of about US$90bn. But Jupiter’s power-pipeline delay highlights the key risks—execution, financing, construction costs and when these investments actually translate into cash.
Analysts remain broadly positive, though targets vary sharply, reflecting concerns over valuation and capital intensity.
View: HOLD, not chase. Meaningful accumulation would be closer to US$135–145, where risk/reward improves.
For option writers, I prefer a bullish cash-secured put over buying calls: 30–60 DTE, around 0.20–0.30 delta, targeting US$125–135 strikes. If assigned, covered calls around US$165–180 could monetise the rebound.
The AI opportunity is real—but Jupiter has to turn billions of capex into billions of cash flow.
Not financial advice.
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Oracle: AI Goldmine or Cash-Flow Trap?
Project Jupiter puts Oracle firmly in the AI infrastructure race, but the price of that ambition is heavy. FY2026 revenue rose 17% to US$67.4bn, yet free cash flow swung to -US$23.7bn as capex ballooned to US$55.7bn.
The bull case remains compelling: Oracle’s backlog reached US$638bn, while management expects FY2027 revenue of about US$90bn. But Jupiter’s power-pipeline delay highlights the key risks—execution, financing, construction costs and when these investments actually translate into cash.
Analysts remain broadly positive, though targets vary sharply, reflecting concerns over valuation and capital intensity.
View: HOLD, not chase. Meaningful accumulation would be closer to US$135–145, where risk/reward improves.
For option writers, I prefer a bullish cash-secured put over buying calls: 30–60 DTE, around 0.20–0.30 delta, targeting US$125–135 strikes. If assigned, covered calls around US$165–180 could monetise the rebound.
The AI opportunity is real—but Jupiter has to turn billions of capex into billions of cash flow.
Not financial advice.
Oracle’s Jupiter is a massive AI bet, but the road won’t be smooth. Power shortages, a delayed gas pipeline, rising construction costs, huge funding needs and execution risk could pressure margins and cash flow. I’m bullish on the long-term AI demand, but Jupiter must prove it can deliver.
Aug 19 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1) Market chatter suggests China may ease import curbs on Nvidia H200 chips, lifting sentiment across compute plays. If enacted, the policy would ease the domestic compute crunch, enabling cloud vendors and LLM developers to scale, and would be positive for Nvidia's China shipments. For now it's only market chatter with no official documentation, so expectations may miss; watch for the final rules and quota sizes.2) The Zhuque-3 Y2 launch vehicle ignited at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Zone. It then lifted off...Aug 19 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1) Market chatter suggests China may ease import curbs on Nvidia H200 chips, lifting sentiment across compute plays. If enacted, the policy would ease the domestic compute crunch, enabling cloud vendors and LLM developers to scale, and would be positive for Nvidia's China shipments. For now it's only market chatter with no official documentation, so expectations may miss; watch for the final rules and quota sizes.2) The Zhuque-3 Y2 launch vehicle ignited at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Zone. It then lifted off...Anthropic has just surpassed OpenAI in quarterly revenue for the first time, with revenue more than doubling — just three months ago, OpenAI was still the clear leader.The year-over-year numbers look ...
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Oracle has steadily recovered from its low of near $100. The upward trajectory is slow because capex concerns remain. Give it time. It is not a broken business but paying for a major transition. That said, i do have a keep or sell decision on 31/12.
When Nvidia announced Spectrum-X switches built with CPO (co-packaged optics) have entered mass production, it named 4 Taiwan firms among partners, TSMC, Foxconn, ASE and Browave as well as China’s leading optics firm, TFC Communication, media report, and multiple firms say their order books are already full through 2027 and expect supplies to be tight into 2028.
CoreWeave, Lambda and Oracle will become the first to deploy the 200Gbps/lane CPO Ethernet switch system, billed for a big leap in performance:5x improvement in network power efficiency5x increase in continuous AI uptime10x extension in Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)Up to 1.6x overall AI network performance boost, supports 100s of 1000s of GPUsTSMC and Foxconn are expected to play key roles, with TSMC leading production via its COUPE silicon photonics engine platform, which integrates components that are then packaged by ASE and use Browave’s optical components. Foxconn does final assembly of the CPO switches.Foxconn Chairman Young Liu has said CPO switch shipment volumes will reach 10,000 units this year, with 2027 shipments multiplying several times over.Taiwan’s FOCI and ShunSin have secured key niches in the supply chain, with FOCI’s expertise in Fiber Array Units (FAU) and ShunSin’s advanced packaging mass production prowess, media say, calling them key winners further down the supply chain. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
$Oracle(ORCL.US)Oracle is definitely testing my patience here 😅 Currently sitting at a -17.39% P/L, with the market price at 148.570 versus my average cost of 180.032. The chart has been quite a journey, but I’m trying not to let short-term volatility change my original investment view. For now, I’m staying patient and watching Oracle’s fundamentals, growth potential and future earnings closely. Sometimes the hardest part of investing is simply waiting for the thesis to play out. 📈
