ProShares Shrt QQQ

The U.S. 20-year Treasury auction ended poorly, with the 20-year Treasury yield breaking 5% and the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5%, advancing to 4.6%. The outcome aligns with Dolphin Research's analysis in the weekly strategy report: once the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5% and continues to rise, U.S. stocks follow with a correction. Regarding the surge in Treasury yields, Dolphin Research also noted in the report that while Trump claims to be a fiscal hawk, his tax cuts ultimately result in significant deficit policies.This means the deficit issues from the pandemic-era stimulus remain unresolved, and the federal government is adding more debt. The lack of market confidence naturally led to lower auction prices for U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, strange developments are occurring with Japanese bonds: Japan was the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, but now Japan and the U.S. are negotiating, with the U.S. pushing for yen appreciation. From a trading perspective, yen appreciation against the dollar would expose Japanese private institutions holding U.S. Treasuries to exchange rate risks. Japanese insurers, similar to those in Taiwan, previously did not hedge against currency risks during the dual rise of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets. Thus, the optimal move during yen appreciation is to repatriate funds: sell U.S. Treasuries and buy Japanese bonds.However, the latest news indicates the negotiations failed, meaning trades based on expected agreements must now be unwound—buying U.S. Treasuries and selling yen. The result is a yen correction and rising Japanese bond yields.$VG Long-Term(BLV.US), $ProShares Shrt QQQ(PSQ.US), $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US), $Currencyshares JPY Trust(FXY.US), $Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF(UDN.US)Additional note: Overseas creditors hold about 30% of U.S. Treasuries, with over 15% held by foreign private institutions rather than official entities. Japanese private institutions hold an even larger share, giving them greater pricing power in Treasury transactions than official entities.<figure class="image"></figure>The chart shows Japan was indeed selling U.S. Treasuries in April, but by the week of May 17, it had shifted to net buying. In other words, without Japanese buyers, Treasury yields might have risen even higher. If Japan and the U.S. eventually reach a trade agreement and the yen appreciates, Japanese buyers may further sell U.S. Treasuries.<figure class="image"></figure> The weakening trend of the dollar is certain in this process. If the U.S. continues large-scale Treasury financing under these conditions, it’s no surprise that investors are betting on the 10-year Treasury yield soaring to 5%.Reference: &#34;Big but Ugly&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34;: Will U.S. Stocks Suffer Again Due to Treasuries? https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/29808412

“大而美”=“大赤字”，美股又要被美债连累了？ - LongPort

Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF

VG Long-Term

Currencyshares JPY Trust

SPDR Gold Shares

PSQ to Release Quarterly Earnings on August 14, Analysts Expect EPS of -0.30 USD

PSQ (New York Stock Exchange: PSQH) will release its quarterly financial report data on Wednesday, May 15th

Luminar Tech

Novabay Pharmac

Mint Incorporation

Autozi Internet Tech Global

GD Culture

Impact BioMedical

Tradr 2X Long FLY Daily ETF

Leverage Shares 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF

T-REX 2X Long CRWV Daily Target ETF

How does the Federal Reserve raising interest rates impact inflation? In a perfect world, higher interest rates would lower demand — theoretically lowering inflation. #learnwithpublic #federalreserve #inflation #inflation2022 #economy #fedratehike #fedrateincrease

How does the Federal Reserve raising interest rates impact inflation?

Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, the inflation data for November may be distorted, leading to an underestimation of inflation levels. Federal Reserve officials believe that there is no need to adjust interest rates in the coming months. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester opposes further rate cuts, expressing concerns about high inflation. She is a non-voting member of the FOMC and will become a voting member next year. Mester stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates at least until spring 2026, with the current target range for interest rates set at 3.5% to 3.75%

Zaobao

Inflation may be underestimated due to data distortion, Federal Reserve officials: No need to adjust interest rates in the coming months | Lianhe Zaobao

The Fed is seeking public comment on a proposal to introduce limited-access “payment accounts. " source:

CoinLive

Fed moves closer to 'skinny' payment accounts for crypto banks

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,The Federal Reserve has had a clear easing bias in recent decades, which we can see from looking at historical dissents in the FOMC. We may see more of the same next year,leading to more dissents in a tightening direction, and, with it, rising volatility in short-term rates.

ZeroHedge

Fed's Bias For Lower Rates Becomes Clear Looking At Dissents

Former Heritage Foundation think tank economist Peter St Onge just issued a fresh warning about inflation. In a new video update, the economist says the Federal Reserve’s decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) and start buying short-term U. S. Treasury bills will likely cause inflation to jump higher once again source:

$9,000,000,000,000 Wall of US Debt Incoming As Fed Unleashes Money Printers: Peter St Onge

Economists have cautioned that the most recent Consumer Price Index report may have been distorted by problems in data collection, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve. This issue comes at a time when the Fed is already dealing with a decline in the job market. The accuracy of important economic indicators may be compromised due to this data collection problem.

Unusual Whales

In November, U.S. inflation decreased to 2.7%, with data distortions due to the shutdown complicating the Fed's decisions.

Chris Casey of WindRock Wealth Management warns that the real inflation risk is yet to come, driven by the Federal Reserve's response to unsustainable debt. Despite rate cuts, the Fed's limited options and the fiscal crisis may lead to money printing, triggering inflation. Markets are already looking beyond rate cuts, anticipating the next inflation wave not from supply shocks but from fiscal policies.

Talkmarkets

America’s Fiscal Crisis Will Drive The Next Inflation Shock; Debt, QE & The Fed

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the central bank would look at this latest report with a “skeptical eye" because of possible distortions.

Delayed inflation data shows price pressures easing, in boost to Trump

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,A more discordant Federal Reserve next year increases the likelihood of higher short-term rate volatility, posing a risk to the basis trade and inflating Treasury funding costs.It’s going to be a year of flux for the Fed.

Basis Trade (& Treasury Funding) Is At Mercy Of Mutiny At The Fed

CNBC’s “Power Lunch” team discuss escalating tensions between U.S. and Venezuela and what implications it may have for oil markets with Helima Croft, managing director and head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

How US takes action on Venezuelan oil tankers is key, says RBC's Croft

The DOJ seeks Fed Chair Powell's input on CFPB funding, questioning the Fed's profitability and its impact on CFPB operations. The DOJ's letter to Powell addresses whether the Fed expects to return to profitability soon, affecting the legal rationale for withholding CFPB funds. Judge Jackson orders CFPB Director Vought to attach Powell's response to the court. The issue is central to CFPB's functioning amid legal challenges and potential staff furloughs.

American Banker

DOJ wants Fed Chair Powell to weigh in on CFPB funding

Chop chop continues. Unfortunately the $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) are now leading down for the day and market is redSource: Sunrise Trader

Invesco QQQ Trust

Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF

QQQ 610ish level was important to hold on the gap up. So far it didn't hold. Chop chopSource: Sunrise Trader

Hello stock fans. We walk into a green day with the QQQ leading the way. If long this is bullish.Source: Sunrise Trader

QQQ's sitting in Chop chop area. Less is more right nowSource: Sunrise Trader

If bullish the QQQ's must lead up. They are leading down right now. At minimum this is a caution flag. Adjust accordingly.Source: Sunrise Trader

🎉 Hello Longbridgers! Xmas is coming, and so is your chance to win 500 Task Coins! 🎁🎅 The “Santa Rally” usually refers to the last 5 trading days of December and the first 2 of January. Historically, US stocks rise 70%-80% of the time, averaging ~1.3%.🎄 In 2025, the market faces variables: Fed rate cuts, AI-driven valuation shifts, geopolitics, and tariff uncertainty. Some strategists warn that “traditional playbooks may fail.”Here’s the question:Do you think Nasdaq 100 ETF -$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) will rise from Dec 24, 2025 to Jan 6, 2026?🎁 Win 500 Task Coins for correct answers📌 Follow @Longbridge Singapore to join⏳ Voting ends Sat, 13 Dec🎉 Rewards sent within 5 working days after Jan 6

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Invesco

Will QQQ rise in Santa Rally?

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🏆 Prize Quiz | Will Nasdaq Break All-Time Highs This Week?Correct answers win 500 Task Coin! 😍Last week, US markets saw their sharpest drop since April—$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)fell over 3%. Now, stocks are at a critical crossroads.Earnings season impresses: 83% of 446 S&amp;P 500 firms beat estimates. Yet sentiment stays mixed—optimism from a resolved shutdown vs caution over Fed moves. Will strong earnings lift Nasdaq to records, or will resistance keep volatility high? Predict the outcome!🚨Notes: You must follow this account @Longbridge Singapore to eligible for the task coin rewards.Voting closes at the US regular trading hours (RTH) closing price this Thursday, 13 November.Winners will receive 500 Task Coins within 5 working day