Tradr 2X Long Innovation100 QuarterlyETF

Breaking: Michael Burry just reversed one trade and doubled another

He:

• Bought back 25% of Semiconductor ETF $SMH puts

• Bought more Build-A-Bear $Build A Bear(BBW.US)

• Doubled Nasdaq 100 $QQQ puts, early 2027 expiry

Burry said “I added back what I sold” on the $SMH puts, per his Substack

Bank of America now sees the Fed hiking at each of its next 3 meetings

BofA economists added a January 2027 hike to their call, on top of the December and March hikes they already expected

That would take the fed funds rate from 3.75%-4.00% today to a peak of 4.50%-4.75%

Their old call was 2 more hikes at a quarterly pace, topping out at 4.25%-4.50%

"After Oct CPI, the Fed looks further behind the curve on inflation," BofA economist Aditya Bhave wrote, adding that the Fed "no longer has the luxury of hiking at a quarterly pace"

BofA now tracks core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, at 3.3% a year

The call lands the same morning wholesale prices hit +6.5% YoY, the hottest reading since 2022

When one of the biggest bank desks pencils in back to back hikes, the rate cut crowd has officially run out of road. Long duration tech in $QQQ and bonds in $TLT feel that first, and nobody should be surprised if a 5% fed funds rate is the next number the market starts to price

Source: StockMarket.News

BREAKING 🚨 US wholesale inflation just hit 6.5%, the highest since November 2022

Producer prices rose 0.3% in October, a touch below the 0.4% forecast, after a 1.4% jump in September

Goods prices are up 10.2% from a year ago, the biggest 12-month surge since October 2022

Truck freight prices jumped 3.9% in one month and drove more than 80% of the rise in services

Core PPI rose 0.3%, right in line with expectations

Markets are still fully pricing a Fed rate HIKE at the December 8 to 9 meeting

A softer monthly print is nice, but 6.5% a year on the wholesale side means more price pressure is still in the pipe for consumers, and that keeps the Fed and the 10 year in charge of $SPY $QQQ $TLT

Source: StockMarket.News

US PPI Inflation Data (Oct): $QQQ $SPY

➤ Core PPI MoM: 0.3% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.8%)

➤ Core PPI YoY: 5.0% (Forecast 5.0%, Previous 5.0%)

➤ PPI MoM: 0.3% (Forecast 0.4%, Previous 1.4%)

➤ PPI YoY: 6.5% (Forecast 6.6%, Previous 6.3%)

The US just ran a $404 billion budget deficit in October, the biggest October deficit in history

That is up 42% from $284 billion a year ago and breaks the old October record set in 2025

Spending jumped 12% to a record-for-October $773 billion while tax receipts fell 9% to $369 billion

Medicare ($170B), Social Security ($143B) and defense ($129B) led outlays, and net interest alone cost $103 billion in a single month

Treasury says part of the jump is timing, since some military, veterans and Medicare payments were pulled into October because Nov 1 fell on a weekend

Even so, fiscal 2027 is starting right after a nearly $2 trillion deficit year, with the 10-year yield already back above 5.1% after weak auctions this week

More deficits means more Treasury supply, and that keeps pressure on long-term yields, mortgage rates and the valuations of $QQQ and $TLT at a moment when bond buyers are already pushing back

Source: StockMarket.News

The 10-year Treasury yield just jumped back above 5.1%, up about 25 bps in only 3 trading days

It closed at 4.86% on Monday and is now trading near 5.11%, its highest close since Oct 21 if it holds

The trigger was another weak bond auction. The Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds today at 5.441%, a 0.4 bp tail with bid-to-cover falling to 2.36 from 2.54 last month

Dealers were left holding 11.4% of the auction, up from 6.8% in October, as foreign and institutional demand slipped

That follows Tuesday's 10-year auction, which also tailed by 1 bp

The 30-year yield is back near 5.44% and the 10-year is now only about 20 bps below its Oct 5 close of 5.31%

Bond buyers are demanding more to hold long duration, and that pressure lands right on mortgage rates and tech valuations at the worst possible time for $QQQ, which is already fighting the $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO shock

Source: StockMarket.News