Mizuho on Semis pullback: 'we see this as a buying opportunity with $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Credo Tech(CRDO.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), $Dell Tech(DELL.US), and $Lam Research(LRCX.US) remaining well-positioned'.
"We look at the AI semis space after reports of Anthropic and OpenAI CEOs calling for AI development slowdown post Dario Amodei's essay, with the push for guardrails on frontier model adoption. Key points: 1) Anthropic and OpenAI seeking to potentially slow down AI development citing safety concerns, with pushback from US Chair David Sacks challenging their altruistic reasoning, 2) we believe imposing RSI limits combined with a lack of global AI consensus or coordination implies potential AI pacing ineffectiveness, as it risks ceding share to efficient Chinese competition (Ex-2) and, 3) Key to watch - No change to AI DC Capex/GW compute spend from AI labs and CSPs, while AI adoption, while early, remains positive for the AI Semis beneficiaries. With the SOX down ~6% this morning, we see this as a buying opportunity with MU, LITE, CRDO, SNDK, AVGO, DELL, and LRCX remaining well-positioned."
Share your thoughtsWhat's on your mind?
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LEOPOLD MIGHT BE BACK.
Situational Awareness is active in the options market again and Leopold has reportedly been buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of options in $Coreweave(CRWV.US), $AMD(AMD.US), $Bloom Energy(BE.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), and others, according to CNBC. Pretty incredible. Just two months ago, the fund fell 67% because of being over leveraged by 4x. Two months later, oil is at $100 and bond yields are the highest since 2023 but many of those names that Leopold had to sell are still trading well below their June peak.So, even if the macro isn't the best (which effects these high beta growth stocks) the lack of movement in their prices with the very, very bullish updates we keep seeing for AI compute buildout might mean that Leo is calling a bottom or at the very least saying that these stocks will not be effected by macro because the AI trade is that strong. Obviously, those stocks did get hit with macro concerns back in July.If he's not borrowing money on margin to lever up than these options can still create leverage but they may not be as aggressive as actually borrowing against the asset themselves to fund the purchases.Anyone following him and buying options on most of the beaten up $SMH names?Source: amit
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$Sandisk(SNDK.US)
Post 5 of Episode 22
Context: What changed my view on SanDisk was recognising that AI inference creates a very different storage problem. As context windows grow and workloads become more data-intensive, fast NAND can increasingly be used to offload and support KV-cache workloads instead of relying entirely on much more expensive memory.
My trade: I see SNDK as a way to gain exposure to this less obvious second-order effect of AI. The attraction is not just higher NAND demand, but the possibility that tighter supply, improving pricing and greater data-centre usage can lift the economics of the business at the same time.
Takeaway: The next phase of AI may reward more than just compute and memory. When workloads scale, the boundary between “storage” and “performance infrastructure” starts to blur — and that is where SanDisk becomes much more interesting.
@Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - P
🚨Leopold/Situational Awareness returns?
Since last Friday, there's been a string of significant Flex calls bought in concentrated AI names: $315M total options premiums / $1.1B of delta / $5.8M of vega.Positions:- $Sandisk(SNDK.US): Jan 2040/2200 calls - $57M prem, $198M delta, $1.04M vega.- $Bloom Energy(BE.US): Jan 250/310 calls - $48M prem, $140M delta, $565k vega.- $Intel(INTC.US): Jan 105/115 calls - $48M prem, $185M delta, $870k vega.- $Coreweave(CRWV.US): Jan 105/115 calls - $43M prem, $160M delta, $770k vega.- $DRAM: Jan 65/70 calls - $43M prem, $173M delta, $855k vega.- $SK Hynix(SKHY.US): Jan 190/210 calls - $39M prem, $148M delta, $710k vega.- $AMD(AMD.US): Jan 540/580 calls - $36M prem, $193M delta, $1.08M vega.It'll be confirmed as Leopold if we start to see some big FLEX calls in $Micron Tech(MU.US) / $Nebius(NBIS.US) / $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) soon. Data via CBOE. NMR + GS desks aligned on "single mystery buyer" narrative... - 升
The probability of rate hikes is indeed rising, but Trump's public comments have mixed effects. The greater momentum lies within the market itself. It seems Warsh is being clever: 'Don't look at me for whether it goes up or down; I'm not taking the blame for this.'
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — US Jobs Blowout Pushes Rate-Hike Odds to 60%US markets are closed today for Labor Day, so let's recap Friday's session: August non-farm payrolls blew past estimates, pushing September rate-hike odds to 60%. Tesla's Cybercab officially launched ...
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$Sandisk(SNDK.US)
I chosen to let you go baby BUT will come back for you again. 😘
Long image
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OpenAI claims that thier latest GPT-6 Astra model is able to do a whole new range of activities, including solving long standing open mathematics problem with a 98% score as well as being spectacular in the electrical engineering field. But the question is: Is the new frontier model really that impressive or did marketing and awareness overstate its benefits? There could also be ethical concerns raised if Astra 6 starts the revolution of taking over EE jobs and designs
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — After GPT-6 Astra, Memory Chip Inventory Falls to Just 10 DaysOpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Nvidia's "AGI has arrived" moment are the most visible face of an AI compute boom so intense it's pushed global memory chip inventories down to just 10 days' worth. Separately...
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The shortage of chips has been a long time conversation - in my opinion, this supports the AI capital expenditure boom the past few months.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — After GPT-6 Astra, Memory Chip Inventory Falls to Just 10 DaysOpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Nvidia's "AGI has arrived" moment are the most visible face of an AI compute boom so intense it's pushed global memory chip inventories down to just 10 days' worth. Separately...
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Today's biggest topic is the increase in income for ministers. I find it hard to reconcile that their salaries are tagged to top income earners especially when we know that income inequality is widening. apparently it's to compensate for the opportunity cost of other income streams such as participating in Longbridge activities where they can potentially earn much more, given their calibre
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — After GPT-6 Astra, Memory Chip Inventory Falls to Just 10 DaysOpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Nvidia's "AGI has arrived" moment are the most visible face of an AI compute boom so intense it's pushed global memory chip inventories down to just 10 days' worth. Separately...
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I’m watching closely the pullback of Singapore banks to see if there are any more opportunities to increase my bank positions.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — After GPT-6 Astra, Memory Chip Inventory Falls to Just 10 DaysOpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Nvidia's "AGI has arrived" moment are the most visible face of an AI compute boom so intense it's pushed global memory chip inventories down to just 10 days' worth. Separately...
