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The Week

SpaceX shares moved in a sharp up-and-down pattern this week. The stock started strong, then gave back gains into Friday’s broad market sell-off. The latest quote put the stock around $146.03, down from the prior close of $148.62, with after-hours trading sliding further to $145.49. The S&P 500 lost 1.95% on the week, and SpaceX’s retreat late in the week tracked the wider pullback. Pre-market trading on Friday briefly touched $153.44 before the stock turned negative, caught between the Roadster reveal and the weaker tape. Turnover rate came in around 5.71%, which sits at an active level for a name of this size, with total market value near $1.92 trillion.

Key Events

The dominant thread this week was the deepening Tesla-SpaceX connection. On Friday 16 October, Tesla unveiled the long-delayed Roadster, showing a version fitted with SpaceX thrusters that can hit 0-100km/h in under a second but will not be sold for public roads. The demo immediately revived talk of a Tesla-SpaceX merger. Dan Ives said the two companies would operate as a single engineering platform and put the merger probability at 80%. Prediction-market odds for a deal by early 2027 also moved above 50%. SPCX spiked in pre-market alongside TSLA, before voices like Gary Black warned Tesla bulls against overhyping the merger story, arguing the Roadster’s brand impact could outweigh its earnings contribution.

On the same day, Evercore raised its SpaceX price target, saying the proof points are closer, while Harvard’s endowment disclosed that its SpaceX position helped it outpace the S&P 500. Separately, OpenAI poached another AI-focused sales executive from SpaceX, extending the talent tug-of-war around Musk’s businesses. Late Friday, Tesla turned negative, and a market update noted SpaceX shed roughly RMB 270 billion in market value. Away from the merger chatter, SpaceX announced the date for its Q3 2026 earnings release, with attention already forming around AI revenue, Starlink throttling, and Starshield progress.

The Week Ahead

The macro calendar is light next week, but earnings season is approaching and SpaceX’s own Q3 report is the main event. The company has announced its earnings date, though the exact day is not yet shown in the upcoming calendar. Macro releases include the NAHB housing market index on Monday 19 October, housing starts and building permits on Tuesday 20 October, and EIA crude inventories on Wednesday 21 October, none of which should pack much punch for growth stocks. What matters more is whether the merger narrative holds: prediction markets have pushed the Tesla-SpaceX combination odds to 56%, and Evercore’s target increase keeps the validation debate alive. The real test will be whether Q3 numbers provide enough on AI revenue and Starlink momentum to steady the week’s choppy price action.

In Short

This week came down to a collision between valuation and narrative. The Roadster demo stoked merger speculation, Evercore lifted its target, and Harvard’s position was read as long-term conviction. Against that, Friday’s sell-off wiped out a chunk of market value, and Gary Black reminded the market that the merger theme’s earnings contribution may be overestimated. On valuation, the stock trades at a negative P/E and around 15.13 times book, a profile built on growth expectations rather than near-term profit. The latest trading day showed large orders as net sellers while small and medium orders leaned net buyers. Next week’s question is simple: whether the Q3 report can back the AI and Starlink story with hard numbers, and give this week’s sentiment swings a clearer direction.

This article is generated by LongbridgeAI from market data, for information only and not investment advice.