Weekly Recap | TLT.US +2.65%, best week for longs since 2025
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.TLT closed the week up 2.65% at $80.05, versus $77.98 the prior Friday. The S&P 500 fell 1.95% over the same stretch, leaving TLT ahead by roughly 4.6 percentage points. The week started quietly with a small dip early on, then found footing near $77.74 on Wednesday before jumping above $80 on Thursday. Friday held near that level. Daily volume averaged 45.0m shares, about 28.6% above the recent median.
The Week
TLT closed the week up 2.65% at $80.05, versus $77.98 the prior Friday. The S&P 500 fell 1.95% over the same stretch, leaving TLT ahead by roughly 4.6 percentage points. The week started quietly with a small dip early on, then found footing near $77.74 on Wednesday before jumping above $80 on Thursday. Friday held near that level. Daily volume averaged 45.0m shares, about 28.6% above the recent median.
Sector News
The main macro driver was hotter-than-expected US inflation. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with most core measures above forecasts. That revived bets on a possible October Fed rate hike. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for three straight sessions, with the Nasdaq down 500 points at one stage and AI hardware leading the sell-off. Long-dated Treasuries moved the other way, with AI bubble worries handing long-term bonds their best week since March 2025. Friday’s PPI and retail sales also came in strong, but Fed Governor Waller’s remarks reinforced expectations of a pause, and yields cooled. BlackRock said it was trimming US equity exposure and that rate-hike pricing looked overdone.
The Week Ahead
Next week’s calendar is concentrated in housing and energy data. Monday brings the NAHB housing market index, with both prior and forecast at 32. Tuesday has US housing starts, prior 1.275m and forecast 1.305m, alongside building permits, prior 1.403m and forecast 1.395m. Wednesday has EIA weekly crude inventories, prior -8.557m barrels, and Cushing inventories, prior +1.862m barrels. These releases will test how the housing market and energy stockpiles are holding up under high rates, and may feed into the rate-path debate.
In Short
The week’s split between TLT and equities reflected a sharp repricing of rate expectations after the inflation surprise. The AI-led sell-off pushed some money toward long bonds, and TLT’s valuation remains modest with a price-to-book around 0.83 and a dividend yield near 4.86%. The latest daily snapshot shows net buying across large, medium and small lots, though that single-day reading should not be read as a weekly trend. The path ahead turns on whether housing and energy data keep inflation sticky, and whether Treasury yields give long-duration bonds a clearer direction.
This article is generated by LongbridgeAI from market data, for information only and not investment advice.