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ECB's Sleijpen Says Market's Rate Hike Expectations Are 'Reasonable'

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Olaf Sleijpen, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, stated that market expectations for rate hikes this year are 'reasonable'. He noted that current market pricing reflects two 0.25 percentage point increases in deposit rates, with the first set for June. Sleijpen mentioned that the ECB will assess the situation in the Middle East in the weeks leading up to its April policy meeting

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European bourses rose modestly as traders considered Middle East peace prospects and cooling oil prices, with Brent crude down 3.2% at $96.26 a barrel. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased by 0.1%, led by a 1.5% rise in the Technology Index. The Eurozone's trade surplus was reported at 11.5 billion euros in February. National indexes showed Germany's DAX up 0.6% and the FTSE 100 down 0.3%. The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index fell 5.5%, indicating above-average market volatility ahead.

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The ongoing conflict weighed on global sentiment despite assurances from U.S. President Donald Trump that the war “should be ending pretty soon.”

European stocks poised for negative open as Iran war stays in focus

The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in June due to inflation concerns linked to the conflict in Iran. A Bloomberg survey indicates eurozone inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% this year, above the previous forecast of 2%, before decreasing to 2.1% by 2026 and 2% by 2027. While ECB officials may prefer to keep rates unchanged at the end of April, some believe a rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out.

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Germany will lower its economic growth forecast for this year from 1% to 0.5%, impacted by the war in Iran. (Financial Times UK)

Bank of Finland Governor and ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn discusses the impact of the Iran conflict on the eurozone economy, ECB monetary policy, support for Ukraine, and European competitiveness.

ECB’s Rehn: Europe’s economy 'quite resilient' despite impact

Market expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East will restore oil and gas transportation, alleviating inflationary pressures on the global economy, leading to a general rise in global stock markets. European stocks closed with more gains than losses, with the London FTSE 100 index rising by 0.29%, the Frankfurt DAX index increasing by 0.36%, while the Paris CAC 40 index fell by 0.14%

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European stocks closed higher

European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have downplayed the likelihood of a rate hike in April, emphasizing the need for more data before making a decision. Inflation has exceeded the ECB's 2% target due to rising energy costs, prompting discussions on tightening policy. Financial markets now see only a 20% chance of an April hike, with expectations for a move by July. ECB officials stress the importance of patience and data analysis before acting, as current inflation expectations remain stable.

- European Central Bank decision-makers are downplaying the likelihood of interest rate hikes this month, citing the need for more data.  
- Inflation has exceeded the ECB's 2% target due to rising energy costs, prompting discussions on tightening policy to avoid broader economic impacts.  
- While no officials entirely rule out an April hike, they indicate that significant deterioration in the economic outlook would be necessary for such a decision.

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ECB policymakers play down April rate hike chances

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European shares remained stable as markets assessed Middle East developments and corporate earnings. The Stoxx 600 index closed flat at 616.95 points, with mixed performances across regional bourses. Germany's DAX and London's FTSE 100 rose by 0.3%. The German government revised its growth forecasts downward amid rising inflation. While optimism about the Iran conflict grew, concerns about high oil prices affecting European economies persisted. Technology and energy sectors saw gains, while financial shares and travel stocks faced declines. Notable stock movements included Barry Callebaut's 15.6% drop and Entain's 6% rise.

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The German DAX 30 index initially rose 0.38% to 24,158.32 points. French indices initially gained 0.08%, Italian indices initially fell 0.15% with the banking index dropping 0.65%, and UK indices initially rose 0.33%

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After dropping 12% earlier this year, European stocks have recaptured almost all of the losses. But is it sustainable or even justified?

European markets surged 3.9% on ceasefire news. Does that move reflect a genuine recovery or a short-term unwind?

The European Central Bank took a cautious stance on raising interest rates in the March meeting, believing there is currently insufficient evidence to support a rate hike. The meeting minutes indicate that decision-makers believe the impact of the Iran war may be temporary, but also warned of potential risks such as rising energy prices and uncertainty. The central bank will continue to monitor data to take policy action if necessary

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The European Central Bank is cautious about raising interest rates too early at the March meeting

The German government has revised its growth forecasts downward for 2026 and 2027, citing rising oil and gas prices due to the Iran war. The growth expectation for this year is now 0.5%, reduced from 1.0%, and for next year, it has been cut to 0.9% from a previous estimate of 1.3%. Additionally, inflation projections have been raised.

- The German government has revised its growth forecasts downward for 2026 and 2027, citing the impact of the Iran war on oil and gas prices.  
- For 2023, the growth expectation is now 0.5%, reduced from 1.0%, while the forecast for 2024 is lowered to 0.9% from 1.3%.  
- Additionally, inflation projections have been increased due to rising energy costs.

Exclusive - German government cuts growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, source says

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks stated that market expectations for two rate hikes this year are reasonable. He noted that while significant second-round inflation effects have not yet materialized, firms may adjust prices more quickly due to recent inflation experiences. Kazaks emphasized that every ECB meeting is crucial, with potential data shifts before the April 30 meeting. Currently, a June rate hike is priced in at 67%, with 50 bps of hikes expected by December. He cautioned about the volatility in energy prices and maintained a restrictive stance to manage inflation.

- The European Central Bank (ECB) may experience significant data changes before the April 30 policy meeting, affecting market expectations for interest rate hikes.  
- A recent report indicated a reduced likelihood of an April rate increase, with the implied probability dropping from 39% to 21%, while June has a 67% chance of a hike.  
- ECB member Martins Kazaks suggested that the expectation for two rate increases this year is reasonable, highlighting a shift in corporate behavior to adjust prices more quickly due to recent inflation experiences.

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ECB's Kazaks: Market pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonable

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ECB's Sleijpen Says Market's Rate Hike Expectations Are 'Reasonable'

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