$Tesla(TSLA.US) Summary - 7/31/2025

Positive Catalysts:

1/ Trump streamlines federal process allowing TSLA to secure general unsupervised autonomy license nationally

2/ FSD licensing deal with 1 or more OEMs

3/ TSLA removes safety drivers from robotaxis, goes national once critical disengages fall to 1 per 10K mi by FY’25 Y.E.

4/ TSLA launches short Model Y at $40K price point to compete in compact SUV segment; could increase TAM

5/ TSLA launches smaller $50K pickup that expands TAM; could add 420K annual delivs and $.85/share EPS; early-2026

6/ Cybercab production begins early-2026

7/ Optimus production begins late-2026

Negative Catalysts:

1/ Trump admin restricts state efforts to control carbon emissions, which could significantly reduce TSLA ZEV sales.

2/ Loss of $7,500 EV credit pulls forward 3Q sales; 4Q & FY’26 sales may plummet

3/ TSLA fails to introduce new cheaper form factor in 2025/2H, and instead cuts prices and costs similar to 2023-2024

4/ FY’25 and FY’26 EPS ests continue to fall (-46% and -38% respectively YTD) as FY’25 and FY’26 delivery ests continue to slide (FY’25 -22% and FY’26 -24% YTD).

5/ TSLA 2025 P/E of 178x too high relative to FY’25-‘30 EPS growth of +30% CGR. Avg forward P/E last 3 years 85x.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) 6-12 month price target $310