Gary Black Tracker

I believe it’s better for equities if the Fed raises short-term rates by 25bp tomorrow (first Fed rate increase since July 2023) in response to elevated oil prices (brent crude +50% since end of Feb) than to get forced into a series of rate hikes. While brent prices are likely to fall from here if Trump can negotiate an end to the war — which would help Republicans in the midterms — a dose of Fed medicine tomorrow could prevent a situation where a Kevin Warsh-led Fed is forced onto a path of several interest rate hikes, which would likely push 10-year Treasury yields higher, hurting growth equities. A short term rate hike tomorrow if positioned as potentially one-and-done could push 10-year treasury yields lower.

Please see my daily pre-mkt summary on my assessment of elevated oil prices caused by Saudi Arabia’s closure of their East-West pipeline, which has driven Brent crude to $105/bbl and caused 10-year treasury yields to spike to 5.05%, its highest level since 2007. This has led value stocks to significantly outperform growth stocks (+20.9% vs +2.7% respectively YTD) with long duration growth stocks like $Tesla(TSLA.US) impacted most. Money markets now see a 92% chance of a Fed hike (first hike since July 2023) tomorrow following the two-day Fed meeting.

$Meta Platforms(META.US) remains one of our top 15 positions and next to $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) is our 2nd favorite media/comms name. We expect META to continue to post +20% revenue growth and +15%+ EBiTDA growth long-term. META has 3.7B Daily Active People growing at 3-4% per year and avg rev per person (ARPP) growing at 20%+ per year and is uniquely positioned through Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp to drive AI-engagement through its user base. At a 2026 P/E of 20.7x vs +15% long term Rev and EPS growth it remains among the cheapest of all Mag 8 stocks.

$Uber Tech(UBER.US) Stock Pops After CEO Buys Shares Worth $10 Million.

Prediction: New $Apple(AAPL.US) fold phone will become a must-have product for 20- and 30-somethings, will usher in a new iPhone upgrade cycle, substantially increase iPhone ASP, and allows business travelers to bring one small device rather than two.

US stocks were mixed pre-market as brent crude rose a fifth day to above $100/bbl ahead of the ECB rate decision and $Oracle(ORCL.US) earnings. Treasuries were little changed at 4.84%. $Apple(AAPL.US) gained following its foldable iPhone launch while chip stocks and $Tesla(TSLA.US) slipped after last week’s vague Cybercab event. Strong August jobs data last week has lifted September Fed rate hike odds to 62%, though tomorrow’s CPI could overshadow the strong jobs report. I remain skeptical the Fed will raise rates at next week’s meeting this close to midterm elections. The forward S&P 2026 P/E of 20.9x puts the S&P 500 earnings yield below the 10-year U.S. treasury yield and vs a typical equity yield premium of +50-100 bp. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2027-30 earnings estimates, the continuing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and TSLA’s extreme valuation.

The cheapest of the Mag 8 on 2026 P/E vs forward long-term eps growth (PEG) is $Broadcom(AVGO.US) at 0.9x (28.0x P/E vs +30% long-term eps growth). The most expensive of the Mag 8 on PEG is $Tesla(TSLA.US) at 4.8x (222x P/E vs +46% forward eps growth). YTD the best Mag 8 performer has been $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (+20%), which is also one of the cheapest (1.1x PEG); the worst Mag 8 performer has been $Tesla(TSLA.US) (-18%).

US stocks searched for direction as Brent crude briefly crossed $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran attacks with no peace talks in sight, lifting gold, silver and bitcoin. 10-year treasury yields ticked higher in front of next week’s Fed meeting. Chip names gained; $Apple(AAPL.US) edged up ahead of its foldable-phone launch today and $Tesla(TSLA.US) slipped after recovering yesterday following last week’s uncertain Cybercab event. A strong August jobs report Friday has raised odds of a September Fed rate hike to 62%, although the I remain skeptical of a move two months before midterms. S&P 2026 earnings ests continue to rise on AI and energy, but at a 21.1x forward P/E the S&P 500 now yields less (4.7%) than 10yr Treasuries (normal equity premium 50-100bp). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation (220x forward P/E vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.3x PEG).

‘Birkin of smartphones’ to be introduced at $Apple(AAPL.US) new product event today. “Despite the high price, the foldable iPhone will be wildly successful,” said Nabila Popal, a longtime senior smartphone market researcher at IDC. “I won’t be surprised if it becomes the ‘Birkin’ of smartphones in China,” she said, referring to the luxury handbag made by Hermès. Price starting at $2,199.

$Apple(AAPL.US) ‘s annual new product event — titled “Surprise and Shine” — is tomorrow, Wed, Sept 9, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. PT / 1:00 p.m. ET. It will be streamed live from the Steve Jobs Theater at Apple Park on

New bi-fold and tri-fold cell phones from Huawei, Samsung, and $Apple(AAPL.US) are about to lead to a huge upgrade cycle in the cell phone industry.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) has no one but itself to blame for squandering first movers’ advantage in EVs from 2020-2023 and if they use the same play book of allowing the product to speak for itself will squander their first movers’ advantage in unsupervised autonomy in 2026-2027 as well.

Bloomberg: Gary Black Says Tesla Has Solved Unsupervised Autonomy, but Competition Is the Bigger Threat

I’ve said all along that $Tesla(TSLA.US) would solve for unsupervised autonomy, and with the launch of Cybercab it’s clear they have. My caution has always been that a handful of others would also achieve unsupervised autonomy within 18-24 months and with $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Pony AI(PONY.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) now completing over 1 million paid unsupervised autonomous rides per week without safety monitors, that prediction also looks accurate.

Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) retail investors continue to make three common mistakes:

After most $Tesla(TSLA.US) events, TSLA stock sells off the next day, because expectations before the event run too high and the actual deliverables don’t match the hype. So far, the Cybercab event tonight (which is actually the second Cybercab launch; the first was October 10, 2024, at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California) is following the same script, with $Tesla(TSLA.US) +17% over the past month vs NDX flat.

U.S. stocks were slightly lower as oil and 10yr treasury yields ticked higher. Gold, silver and bitcoin rose, and chip names were mixed. $Broadcom(AVGO.US) slipped after slight miss in revenue guidance. U.S.-Iran strikes continued with no resolution in sight. Traders priced a 62% chance of a Sept. Fed hike, although I don’t see it given slowing job growth and temporary nature of oil supply shock. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb on AI and energy sector gains. S&P 500 forward earnings yield remains below 10-year treasury yield (no equity risk premium; normal +50-100 bp premium). Tesla’s Austin Cybercab event is today; I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) shares amid negative TSLA long term earnings revisions, unsupervised autonomy being commoditized, and an extended valuation.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) -7% AH after 3Q results beat ests but 4Q rev guidance fell slightly short of analysts’ expectations ($34.8B vs $35.0B est). Importantly, 3Q AI rev of $16.7B beat 3Q ests of $15.9B and 4Q AI Rev guidance (which caused $Broadcom(AVGO.US) stock to decline -12% after 2Q results) came in above expectations ($21.7B vs $21.3b est). As the AI Rev strength becomes clearer to investors I expect the stock to recover somewhat.

Never short a great company that sells at an expensive valuation. $Tesla(TSLA.US) is a great company with best-in-class technology, leverages key secular megatrends that generate true first movers’ advantage, has a significant manufacturing cost advantage, and is run by a visionary leader who is a magnet for engineering talent. But TSLA trades at an extended valuation (220x forward earnings vs +35% long-term earnings growth), which gives investors reason to not own it, but not a reason to short it.

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) +10% AH after significantly beating 2Q ests and boosting FY’27 Rev guidance by +15% and FY’27 EPS guidance by +42% behind the strength of AI servers demand.

U.S. stocks fell pre-market (SPX -0.4%, NDX -0.7%) as global bond yields hit nearly two-decade highs, oil rose on renewed US-Iran tensions, and odds of a Fed hike in Sept jumped to 62% after Chairman Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Brent reached $92/bbl, the 10-year treasury yield increased to 4.78%; chip stocks declined, and $Tesla(TSLA.US) fell ahead of Thursday’s Austin Cybercab launch (45 unsupervised autonomous vehicles as of yesterday). S&P 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb to $364 (+31% y/y), implying a 2026 P/E of 21.1x and a 4.7% earnings yield which is below 10yr Treasuries for the first time since early 2024 and before that the Internet bubble of 2000. I am skeptical about a pre-midterm Fed rate hike given slowing job growth and the seeming temporary nature of the Brent crude supply shock. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling long-term earnings estimates, the ongoing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a 220x 2026 P/E versus +35% long-term earnings growth implying a 6.3x PEG, by far the highest among the Mag 8.

US stocks mixed pre-market after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech lifted September rate hike odds to 62%. I am skeptical the Fed will move in September given slowing jobs and stable inflation. Brent rose 2% on renewed US-Iran strikes. 2- and 10-yr treasury yields eased, #BTC dipped but is +21% in August. Chip stocks were mixed (NVDA +0.5%). 2026 S&P EPS are now up +31% y/y to $346 on AI and energy sector gains, putting the S&P 500 2026 P/E at 21.2x, matching the 10-year yield. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling long-term estimates, the ongoing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a 210x 2026 P/E versus +35% long-term earnings growth implying a 6x PEG, by far the highest among the Mag 8.

Tech stocks moved sharply higher (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) after $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) forecasted +70% 2028 revenue growth versus +45% expected, easing AI spending slowdown fears amid accelerating demand by NVDA consumers. Oil extended recent declines on possible Hormuz reopening talks; treasury yields edged up ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow morning. Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $79.8K and is now +23% in August. Other chip stocks rose and $Salesforce(CRM.US) advanced +11% higher pre-mkt following its own strong outlook. S&P 2026 earnings ests of $346 (+31% y/y) are likely to move higher following NVDA’s blowout guidance. The current forward S&P 500 earnings yield of 4.7% equals the current 10-year treasury yield for the first time since early 2024 and before that the internet bubble of 2000. The normal S&P 500 equity risk premium over 10-year treasury yields is +50-100 bp.

U.S. equities were flat pre-market ahead of $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) earnings, July PCE data, and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Oil fell further on Iran-Oman Hormuz re-opening talks; treasury yields edged higher while BTC rose. Chip stocks mixed; $Meta Platforms(META.US) gained on state AG settlement talks, TSLA slightly lower after a Cybertruck price hike. S&P 2026 EPS estimates continue to climb (+31% y/y to $346) on AI investment, bringing the forward E/P in line with the 10-year treasury yield (vs normal equity premium +50-100bp). I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining forward earnings estimates, commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and extreme valuation.

This would be positive to $Meta Platforms(META.US) stock if there is a settlement with the state attorney generals even if several billions of dollars. Investors would treat it as a one-time non-recurring event.