Huge disconnect between $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls’ over-the-top autonomy expectations and $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock price. which has underperformed for 5 years (TSLA +51%, NDX +98%). It’s not that $Tesla(TSLA.US) won’t some day solve for unsupervised autonomy. It’s just that everyone else in the auto industry will as well, so TSLA’s 2026 P/E of 200x and forward PEG of 5.7x makes no sense.
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Watching $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls on X is like watching a table of college students at a bar whooping it up as they down Tequila shots. As my wife observing them recently said to me: “They think they’re doing something.”
And so it is with $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls. Despite no evidence the new Cybercab can drive itself flawlessly without safety monitors, bulls are again whooping it up as if TSLA has alone solved for unsupervised autonomy and the Cybercab now drives itself at 99.999% efficacy (1 critical disengagement per 10,000 miles). I fully believe TSLA will be one of the first to solve for generalized (go anywhere) unsupervised autonomy, but so will others ($Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)).As anyone with an X account can clearly see from the videos where autonomous Teslas still require supervision and disengagement, until @elonmusk puts on the road Cybercabs without safety monitors and scales it to cities not already mapped out TSLA stock will remain moribund as it has been for the past five years ($Tesla(TSLA.US) +51%, NDX +98%) despite bulls cheering it on every chance they get.
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U.S. stocks rose (SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.6%) as tech advanced after Anthropic’s 2Q revenue jumped 14-fold from the same period in 2025, reinforcing sustained AI spending. 10yr treasury yields and oil edged lower while Bitcoin, gold, and silver gained. September Fed hike odds fell to 30% amid last week’s weak retail sales data. Korean chipmakers and U.S. tech hardware rose pre-mkt on surging AI demand. S&P 2026 EPS estimates reached $362 (+30% YoY), implying a 21.6x forward P/E matching the 10-year yield for the first time since early 2024, and before that the 2000 internet bubble. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining forward earnings estimates, intensifying autonomous competition, and an elevated valuation.
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I rarely see $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls on X posting on whether TSLA is cheap or expensive. It seems that since they love the products and leadership team they don’t care about the valuation. But at a 2026 P/E of 200x and long-term expected growth of +35%, it will be hard for an investor buying today to make money at TSLA’s current valuation (5.7x PEG; avg Mag 8 stock 2.4x PEG). For those who say valuation doesn’t matter, remember this basic rule of investing: Loving the product doesn’t mean you should love the stock.
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$Uber Tech(UBER.US) Stock Looks Cheap.
Here's Why. By Andrew Bary 08/14/2026 - Barron'sRobo-taxis make up just 1% of U.S. rides. But the disruption threat of autonomous vehicles to Uber Technologies has become an obsession on Wall Street -- and has depressed the value of the company's stock. Investors, however, seem to be overreacting to the robo risk -- and an apparent fraying in Uber's relationship with Waymo, the leader in autonomous vehicles. The fact is that Uber remains dominant in ride-hailing, is the market leader in food delivery, and has an autonomous-vehicle strategy that doesn't rely on Alphabet's Waymo. Uber's stock, now trading around $76, looks appealing at nearly its lowest valuation since going public in 2019. "Valuation is increasingly disconnected from its fundamentals," wrote investor Bill Ackman last week in an investor letter, noting that the company's earnings are expected to rise 35% this year. Uber is one of Ackman's largest holdings. His firm, Pershing Square, owned over $2 billion of Uber on March 31. The stock is down 7% year to date, and up 69% since its initial public offering at $45 a share. That's way below the returns on the S&P 500 index and technology leaders like Apple,
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I fully expect $SpaceX(SPCX.US) to make an all-equity offer at a healthy premium to acquire $Tesla(TSLA.US) sometime this year. It makes Elon’s life easier, and there are clearly shared synergies. My point: Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) shareholders will sell on any deal announcement rather than wait the 6-12 months for any deal to close. And most will not have to fortitude to stomach the approximate 50% SPCX dilution and watching the value of the SPCX equity to be delivered for their TSLA shares decline prior to any deal close.
It shouldn’t be lost on anyone how poorly $Tesla(TSLA.US) shares have performed YTD (TSLA -24% vs NDX +19%) despite high odds of this deal occurring.
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I fully expect $SpaceX(SPCX.US) to make an all-equity offer acquire $Tesla(TSLA.US) sometime this year. It makes Elon’s life easier, and there are clearly shared synergies. My point: Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) shareholders will sell on any deal announcement rather than wait the 6-12 months for any deal to close. And most will not have to fortitude to stomach the approximate 50% SPCX dilution and watching the value of the SPCX equity to be delivered for their TSLA shares decline prior to any deal close.
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US stocks were mixed pre-market after soft July consumer inflation data supported a Fed hold at next month’s Fed meeting, offset by Iran/Hormuz deal doubts; 10year treasury yields and oil fell. AI spending enthusiasm lifted South Korean stocks into a technical bull market after last month’s plunge. S&P 2026 EPS estimates are now +30% y/y on strong AI/energy spending, with S&P earning yields now matching 10yr Treasury yields for the first time since early 2024 and before that the 2000 internet bubble. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid declining short- and long-term earnings estimates, TSLA’s lack of progress in scaling its unsupervised autonomous fleet, and a rich valuation.
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US stocks hovered near records ahead of July CPI data, with Fed rate-hike odds easing after weak payrolls. Oil rose on unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions as Trump favored economic pressure on Iran over strikes. Long duration equities advanced, TSMC posted strong sales, and S&P FY’2026 EPS estimates continued to rise (now +30% YoY to $361, P/E 21.4x) on higher AI investment, though overall valuations offer no equity risk premium versus 10-year treasuries. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid declining long-term earnings estimates, increasing autonomous-vehicle competition, and TSLA’s extended valuation.
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US July nonfarm payrolls fell by -23K, well below consensus ests of a +80K rise. June nonfarm payrolls were revised down to +20k from +57k. July avg hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs prior +0.3%, with the year-over-year gain +3.2% vs +3.5%est.
This will likely increase calls for the Fed to cut rates by year-end, with oil prices likely to fall as the Iran war ends.Equity futures rose after the payrolls print, with S&P 500 +0.5% and NDX futures +1.0%. 10yr treasury yields fell -6.9bp to 4.61%. Normally a soft labor report and declining 10year treasury yields causes long duration (high P/E) equities to perform best.G
$Airbnb(ABNB.US) +9.6% AH after posting a 2Q rev and earnings beat and guiding to stronger than expected 3Q revs. 2Q beat was fueled by strong demand by FIFA World Cup in the Americas.
2Q:- Revenue: $3.61B +17% Y/Y vs. $3.58B expected- Gross booking value $27.2B vs $26.5B est- Nights/Experiences 148.3M vs 145.8M expected- Adj EBiTDA $1,261M vs $1,231M- Earnings per share: $1.37 vs. $1.25 expected3Q Guide: - Revenue between $4.69B and $4.77B (+15-17%) vs analyst consensus of $4.61B (+12% est). - GBV y/y growth mid-teens (vs +11% est)- Adj EBITDA will increase y/y (vs +13% est)FY’26- FY’2026 rev growth mid-teens vs prior forecast of low-to-mid teens (+14% exp).G
$Celsius(CELH.US) -16% pre-mkt after reporting 2Q Revs and Adj EPS that missed WS estimates. CELH does not offer forward guidance.
- Revs $817.9M, +11% y/y, vs $872.6M est- Adj EPS 36c vs. 47c y/y and vs 41c est- North America revenue $790.7M, +11% y/vs $847.3M est- Intern’l revenue $27.2N, +9.7% y/y vs $25.3M est- Gross margin 48.1% vs. 51.5% y/y, vs 48.6% est- Adj Ebitda $184.2M vs $198.4M estEx-Rockstar, organic sales growth was just +2% vs. WS +9% est, as brand Celsius declines (-12%) were more than offset by Alani Nu growth (+22%). Mgmt offered little commentary to suggest a turnaround any time soon. “We delivered a double-digit increase in 2Q revenue, completed the Rockstar integration, and maintained gross margin near first-quarter levels despite a challenging commodity environment." With the $PepsiCo(PEP.US) distribution agreement to sell $Celsius(CELH.US) globally now 4 years old, further CELH distribution gains (c-store, gas stations) are likely limited. I believe $Doordash(DASH.US) with +20% long-term rev growth and +25% long-term eps growth at a 2026 P/E of 37x is a better bet than $Celsius(CELH.US) with at best +5% organic rev growth and a 2026 P/E of 16x.
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$Doordash(DASH.US) -2% post-mkt after reporting 2Q results ahead of ests, and posting stronger than exp 3Q guidance. 2Q earnings were light vs consensus. Stock weak after the print because of higher costs and expenses associated with more orders. I believe stock will recover given strength in orders, revs, and EBITDA.
2Q actual:- Marketplace GOV $33.1B +36% Y/Y vs $32.9B est- Revs 4.45B vs 4.34B est- Orders 970m vs 967.4M est- Adj Gross margin 54.2% vs 51,8% est- Adj EBiTDA $914M vs $843.4M est- Adj EPS $.46 vs $.48 est- Free cash flow $742M vs $840M est3Q guidance:- Marketplace GOV $33.0-$34.0B vs $33.5B est - Adj EBITDA $950M-$1,100M vs $982.2MConf call 430 pm ETG
This makes no sense with 911.5M new $SpaceX(SPCX.US) shares potentially entering SPCX’s float tomorrow, which will double its size.
Bloomberg Retail investors are buying the dip on SpaceX's stock before more shares flood the market.▪Retail investors were buying the dip in SpaceX shares aggressively on Wednesday, even as the company's stock sank after it released its first earnings report as a publicly traded firm.▪Large institutional investors were apparently spooked by SpaceX's second-quarter capital expenditures of more than $18 billion, which is nearly 40% higher than what analysts had modeled.▪Up to 911.5 million SpaceX shares will be eligible to be sold on Thursday for the first time, as the first batch of restricted equity held by early investors and company insiders is due to unlock.By Joseph Adinolfi 08/05/2026 13:51:37 [DJ](MarketWatch) -- Shares in Elon Musk's rocket company were taking it on the chin on Wednesday The SpaceX logo is displayed at the company's facility in Hawthorne, Calif. Retail investors were doing what they do best on Wednesday: Buying the dip in SpaceX shares aggressively, even as the company's stock sank after it released its first earnings report as a publicly traded firm. Large institutional investors were apparently spooked on Tuesday evening after SpaceX (SPCX) said it had booked second-quarter capital expenditures of more than $18 billion, nearly 40% higher than what analysts had modeled. Most of that money is going toward building data centers and other artificial-intelligence-related expenses. But smaller individual players chose to focus on the positives. As a result, buying in SpaceX shares by the retail cohort looked particularly aggressive during the first hour of trading on Wednesday, according to Vanda Research data - even as the stock plunged. On a net basis, individual investors bought $22 million of SpaceX shares during the first hour of trading - ranking third out of 37 opening sessions to date, and more than three times the average initial 60-minute net flow, the Vanda team said. SpaceX shares had jumped on Tuesday before the company released earnings after the bell, FactSet data showed. Buying of bullish SpaceX call options had looked particularly aggressive, some analysts noted. Shares were trading at $109 on Wednesday, down more than 12.5%. By comparison, the company's shares originally priced at $135 ahead of its June 12 initial public offering. The selloff in SpaceX was helping to drag down on the Nasdaq Composite COMP; it was the only one of the three major U.S. equity indexes trading in the red. "Institutions initially focused on sharply higher AI capex and near-term profitability. Retail appear to have reached the opposite conclusion," the Vanda team wrote in commentary shared with MarketWatch. "Today's buying suggests investors continue to view aggressive AI investment as increasing the probability that [SpaceX] becomes the next long-term winner, rather than a reason to sell." Time to buy? Up to 911.5 million SpaceX shares, valued at more than $100 billion, will be eligible to be sold on Thursday for the first time, as the first batch of restricted equity held by early investors and company insiders is due to unlock. The milestone will cause SpaceX's freely tradeable float to more than double, data showed. More shares will become eligible to trade in August and September, with additional releases set to continue through December in one of the largest post-IPO share unlocks in U.S. market history. Brent Donnelly, founder of Spectra Markets, recalled how other stocks that drew sizable media attention around the expiration of their respective share lockups fared once the additional shares started hitting the market. The sample size he used was small - it included only three previous examples from the past few years - and in each case, the size of the unlock was much smaller than what is expected from SpaceX.G
$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) (+5% today) now has two of the top 10 selling drugs in the world: #1 Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes (est 2026 Revs $36B), and #6 Zepbound for weight loss (est 2026 Revs $18B), plus 6 other drugs with more than $1B in expected 2026 revenues. When a pharma rep has a product platform that deep, it gives the sales rep a huge advantage to sell in both new delivery forms for existing treatments (e.g. LLY’s GLP-1 weight loss pill Foundayo) and for new treatments (LLY’s Kisunla for Alzheimer’s, which should generate $600M sales in FY’2026). At 35x 2026 Adj EPS, LLY is certainly not cheap vs +12-15% long-term rev growth and +18-20% EPS growth but it’s a great play on weight loss, type 2 diabetes, and aging.
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$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) +5% premarket after the drugmaker posted 2Q sales ahead of expectations on the strength of its obesity drugs and raised FY’26 revenue full-year forecast above expectations. Foundayo revs (weight loss pill) launched in June beat expectations.
FY’2026 guidance: - Sees Revs $85.0B to $87.0B, saw $82.0B to $85.0B, vs $85.31B est. - Sees Adj EPS $35.50 to $36.50, saw $35.50 to $37 vs $33.56 est.2Q results:- Adj EPS $8.38 +32% Y/Y vs. $6.37 est- Revs $22.97 billion, +48% y/y, vs $20.59 estimate - Mounjaro revenue $9.94B vs $8.83B est- Zepbound revenue $4.93B vs $4.64B - Foundayo revenue $98M vs $92M est- Trulicity revenue $1.22B vs $869M est- Verzenio rev. $1.47B, -1% y/y, vs $1.5B est- Taltz rev. $856M vs $854.7M est- R&D expenses $3.82B vs $4.05B estG
$Uber Tech(UBER.US) -3% pre-market after posting 2Q results broadly in-line with expectations but guiding to 3Q gross bookings that fell 1% short of ests. 3Q EBITDA guidance was above ests.
Third quarter guidance:- Gross bookings $58.25B - $60.25B vs. $$59.32B est. - Adj EPS $0.84-$0.88 vs $.0.86 est - Adj Ebitda $2.86B - $2.96B vs $2.88B est. Second quarter results:- Gross bookings $58.02B, +24% y/y, $57.17B est- Mobility bookings $28.99B, +22% y/y, vs $28.94B est - Delivery bookings $27.46B, +26% y/y, vs $26.97B est- Revenue $14.19 billion, +12% y/y, vs $14.24B est - Trips 3.87B, +18% y/y, vs 3.90B est- Monthly active platform consumers 208M +16% y/y, vs 207.1M est- Adj Ebitda $2.82B, +33% y/y, vs $2.79B est- Adj EPS 81c vs. 60c y/y, vs 81c estInvestors focus on the conference call (8am ET) will be squarely on Uber's long-term progress in its autonomous vehicle (AV) business.G
US stocks were mixed pre-market (SPX +0.2%, NDX -0.2%) as Trump signaled a possible Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran as early as Wednesday, tempered by Iran-backed Houthi threats to disrupt Red Sea travel. Brent rose +1.1% to $80/bbl; gold and silver gained. Notable pre-mkt movers included $SpaceX(SPCX.US) -9% on surging AI spending, $Match(MTCH.US) -10% on disappointing paying users and revenues, and $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) +3% on lackluster Wegovy pill sales at competitor $Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US). Equities remain fully priced with 2026 EPS estimates now $346 (+25% YoY) on AI and energy gains, implying a 22x forward P/E and an earnings yield below 10yr Treasury yields for the first time since early 2024, and before that 2000. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and an extended valuation. $Disney(DIS.US), $Uber Tech(UBER.US), $Eli Lilly(LLY.US), $Kraft Heinz(KHC.US), $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US), and $Shopify (SHOP.US) report earnings today. On Friday, we get July employment numbers.
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$SpaceX(SPCX.US) -6.5% post-mkt after beating 2Q rev and EBITDA ests, but investors likely selling the news after a +9.4% advance today.
2Q results:- Revs $7.8B vs $6.8B exp- # Subs 12.0M vs 12.2M exp- Avg rev per user $66/mo vs $65.60 exp- Total costs and exp $8.0B vs $8.3B exp- Adj EBITDA $3.5B vs $2.0B exp- Capexp $18.4B vs $18.6B exp Approximately 911.5M shares held by employees and early investors will be unlocked and become available for sale on Aug 6, which will potentially double the size of SPCX float (currently 872M shares = 5% of shares outstanding). Short interest remains very high at 18.9% of the current float. Conf call 430pm ETG
$SpaceX(SPCX.US) -5% post-mkt after beating 2Q rev and EBITDA ests, but investors likely selling the news after a +9.4% advance today.
2Q results:- Revs $7.8B vs $6.8B exp.- # Subs 12.0M vs 12.2M exp- Avg rev per user $66 vs $65.60 exp- Total costs and exp $8.0B vs $8.3B exp- Adj EBITDA $3.5B vs $2.0B exp- Capexp $18.4B vs $18.6B exp Conf call 430pm ETG![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Brand leverage is one of the most powerful value drivers in investing. Brand leverage is the extension of a strong established brand to a neighboring category, which if successful can expand the company’s overall TAM and Revenue base. Examples include Porsche’s extension of the Porsche brand from the sports coupe (911) to the SUV category (Cayenne, Macan); Apple’s extension of the Apple brand from laptops and desktops to cellphones and watches; Marriott’s extension of the Marriott brand in high-end hotels to the budget hotel category (Courtyard by Marriott).
Risks: Stretched too far a well-defined brand can break and mean nothing. When going downstream on price to expand the # customers who can afford a product, brand leverage can cause premium customers to abandon a product that now everyone can afford.The best opportunity for brand leverage I see now is $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) extending its brand from the premium SUV category (over $70K) to the mid-priced SUV category ($45K). RIVN built its brand for quality and reliability on its $80K R1 (SUV) and R1T (pickup) EVs. RIVN now going downstream with a smaller and cheaper ($45K) EV to significantly expand its TAM. This is analogous to $Tesla(TSLA.US) ‘s launch of Model 3 and Model Y in 2017-2019 following the establishment of Models X and S in the EV premium segments for sedans and SUVs respectively a decade earlier.
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US stocks rose (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) as a global chipmakers’ rebound led by SK Hynix (+30%) and Samsung (+21%) lifted South Korea’s Kospi by an unprecedented 18%. In addition, $Amazon(AMZN.US) ‘s strong earnings last night (+12% pre-mkt) eased AI spending concerns. Apple fell -7% on weak guidance, while $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US) gained. $Tesla(TSLA.US) +1.5% after the WSJ reported that TSLA is considering a potential separation of its China business to pave the way for a possible merger with $SpaceX(SPCX.US). $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) +4% after beating 2Q rev and EBITDA estimates and guiding to stronger FY’26 results on the initial strength of R2 SUV sales, RIVN’s cheaper $45K SUV that started deliveries in June. The chip rally followed Citadel buying discounted positions from the giant Situational Awareness hedge fund, which lost half its assets. Hyperscaler FY’26 AI CapEx guidance rose only modestly to ~$730B from $700B previously.
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$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) +2.0% AH after posting higher than expected revs and lower than expected Adj EBITDA losses in 2Q, Auto gross margin was significantly higher than expected. FY’26 EBITDA guidance was raised by +$50M higher. RIVN’s progress reflects early adoption of the new lower-priced R2 SUV, which launched in June at a base price of $45K vs $80K for the more expensive and larger R1 SUV.
2Q results:- Delivs 12,194 vs 11,471 exp (previously reported)- Revs $1.66B vs $1.52B exp- GM% 11.0% vs 6.54% exp- EBITDA -$379M vs -$548MFY’26 guidance:- Delivs 65-70K (no change) vs 64,769 exp- EBITDA -1.8B to -$2.0B vs -$2.01B est and vs -$1.8B to -$2.1B prior- CapExp $1.7-$1.8B vs $1.95-$2.05B priorOn the conf call, CEO RJ Scaringe outlined RIVN’s path to full autonomy. RIVN’s autonomy platform is “Autonomy plus” (cost $2,500 upfront, or $49.99/month) which is currently a Level 2+ product. - 2026 “Hands off” L2+- 2027 “Eyes off” L3- 2028 “No driver in car” L4G![图片 1，共 2 张]()
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$Meta Platforms(META.US) likely to follow $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)’s trajectory after missing estimates last week - down -10% after the print, and then a quick recovery (+5% so far) as investors came to realize the results adjusted for one time items weren’t bad, and the slightly negative near-term guidance was management taking its usual conservative stance. The main difference between the two businesses - GOOG revs come mostly from search, META mainly from advertising - are punctuated by GOOG having a surging cloud business and highly popular chat bot (Gemini), while META has neither.
GOOG trades at 17x 2026 EV/EBITDA and is growing long-term revs at +20% CGR; META trades at an 11x EV/EBITDA and is growing long-term revs at +18% CGR. So while META is cheaper, GOOG likely has the better business.G
U.S. stocks rebounded (SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.8%) on strong $Microsoft(MSFT.US) cloud growth, reassuring investors that AI investments are paying off and no further escalation in hyper scaler Capex, outweighing inflation worries and a jump in 30-year treasury yields after the Fed held rates steady. $Meta Platforms(META.US) fell pre-market on lighter 3Q rev guidance. Investor focus remains on potential overspend on AI Capex and likely returns; S&P 500 FY’2026 EPS estimates +25% YoY to $346, equating to a 21.1x forward P/E (4.7% earnings yield) in line with 10-year treasury yields. Escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict continues. Caution advised on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining long-term earnings estimates, likely commoditization of autonomous ride-hailing, and a stretched valuation.