Gary Black Tracker

New bi-fold and tri-fold cell phones from Huawei, Samsung, and $Apple(AAPL.US) are about to lead to a huge upgrade cycle in the cell phone industry.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) has no one but itself to blame for squandering first movers’ advantage in EVs from 2020-2023 and if they use the same play book of allowing the product to speak for itself will squander their first movers’ advantage in unsupervised autonomy in 2026-2027 as well.

Bloomberg: Gary Black Says Tesla Has Solved Unsupervised Autonomy, but Competition Is the Bigger Threat

I’ve said all along that $Tesla(TSLA.US) would solve for unsupervised autonomy, and with the launch of Cybercab it’s clear they have. My caution has always been that a handful of others would also achieve unsupervised autonomy within 18-24 months and with $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Pony AI(PONY.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) now completing over 1 million paid unsupervised autonomous rides per week without safety monitors, that prediction also looks accurate.

Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) retail investors continue to make three common mistakes:

After most $Tesla(TSLA.US) events, TSLA stock sells off the next day, because expectations before the event run too high and the actual deliverables don’t match the hype. So far, the Cybercab event tonight (which is actually the second Cybercab launch; the first was October 10, 2024, at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California) is following the same script, with $Tesla(TSLA.US) +17% over the past month vs NDX flat.

U.S. stocks were slightly lower as oil and 10yr treasury yields ticked higher. Gold, silver and bitcoin rose, and chip names were mixed. $Broadcom(AVGO.US) slipped after slight miss in revenue guidance. U.S.-Iran strikes continued with no resolution in sight. Traders priced a 62% chance of a Sept. Fed hike, although I don’t see it given slowing job growth and temporary nature of oil supply shock. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb on AI and energy sector gains. S&P 500 forward earnings yield remains below 10-year treasury yield (no equity risk premium; normal +50-100 bp premium). Tesla’s Austin Cybercab event is today; I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) shares amid negative TSLA long term earnings revisions, unsupervised autonomy being commoditized, and an extended valuation.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) -7% AH after 3Q results beat ests but 4Q rev guidance fell slightly short of analysts’ expectations ($34.8B vs $35.0B est). Importantly, 3Q AI rev of $16.7B beat 3Q ests of $15.9B and 4Q AI Rev guidance (which caused $Broadcom(AVGO.US) stock to decline -12% after 2Q results) came in above expectations ($21.7B vs $21.3b est). As the AI Rev strength becomes clearer to investors I expect the stock to recover somewhat.

Never short a great company that sells at an expensive valuation. $Tesla(TSLA.US) is a great company with best-in-class technology, leverages key secular megatrends that generate true first movers’ advantage, has a significant manufacturing cost advantage, and is run by a visionary leader who is a magnet for engineering talent. But TSLA trades at an extended valuation (220x forward earnings vs +35% long-term earnings growth), which gives investors reason to not own it, but not a reason to short it.

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) +10% AH after significantly beating 2Q ests and boosting FY’27 Rev guidance by +15% and FY’27 EPS guidance by +42% behind the strength of AI servers demand.

U.S. stocks fell pre-market (SPX -0.4%, NDX -0.7%) as global bond yields hit nearly two-decade highs, oil rose on renewed US-Iran tensions, and odds of a Fed hike in Sept jumped to 62% after Chairman Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Brent reached $92/bbl, the 10-year treasury yield increased to 4.78%; chip stocks declined, and $Tesla(TSLA.US) fell ahead of Thursday’s Austin Cybercab launch (45 unsupervised autonomous vehicles as of yesterday). S&P 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb to $364 (+31% y/y), implying a 2026 P/E of 21.1x and a 4.7% earnings yield which is below 10yr Treasuries for the first time since early 2024 and before that the Internet bubble of 2000. I am skeptical about a pre-midterm Fed rate hike given slowing job growth and the seeming temporary nature of the Brent crude supply shock. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling long-term earnings estimates, the ongoing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a 220x 2026 P/E versus +35% long-term earnings growth implying a 6.3x PEG, by far the highest among the Mag 8.

US stocks mixed pre-market after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech lifted September rate hike odds to 62%. I am skeptical the Fed will move in September given slowing jobs and stable inflation. Brent rose 2% on renewed US-Iran strikes. 2- and 10-yr treasury yields eased, #BTC dipped but is +21% in August. Chip stocks were mixed (NVDA +0.5%). 2026 S&P EPS are now up +31% y/y to $346 on AI and energy sector gains, putting the S&P 500 2026 P/E at 21.2x, matching the 10-year yield. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling long-term estimates, the ongoing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a 210x 2026 P/E versus +35% long-term earnings growth implying a 6x PEG, by far the highest among the Mag 8.

Tech stocks moved sharply higher (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) after $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) forecasted +70% 2028 revenue growth versus +45% expected, easing AI spending slowdown fears amid accelerating demand by NVDA consumers. Oil extended recent declines on possible Hormuz reopening talks; treasury yields edged up ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow morning. Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $79.8K and is now +23% in August. Other chip stocks rose and $Salesforce(CRM.US) advanced +11% higher pre-mkt following its own strong outlook. S&P 2026 earnings ests of $346 (+31% y/y) are likely to move higher following NVDA’s blowout guidance. The current forward S&P 500 earnings yield of 4.7% equals the current 10-year treasury yield for the first time since early 2024 and before that the internet bubble of 2000. The normal S&P 500 equity risk premium over 10-year treasury yields is +50-100 bp.

U.S. equities were flat pre-market ahead of $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) earnings, July PCE data, and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Oil fell further on Iran-Oman Hormuz re-opening talks; treasury yields edged higher while BTC rose. Chip stocks mixed; $Meta Platforms(META.US) gained on state AG settlement talks, TSLA slightly lower after a Cybertruck price hike. S&P 2026 EPS estimates continue to climb (+31% y/y to $346) on AI investment, bringing the forward E/P in line with the 10-year treasury yield (vs normal equity premium +50-100bp). I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining forward earnings estimates, commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and extreme valuation.

This would be positive to $Meta Platforms(META.US) stock if there is a settlement with the state attorney generals even if several billions of dollars. Investors would treat it as a one-time non-recurring event.

U.S. equities rose pre-market ahead of NVDA earnings, July PCE data, and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech amid inflation concerns and stubbornly high long-dated Treasury yields. Brent crude fell, while BTC gained; gold and silver declined. Chip stocks rebounded on AI optimism in front of the $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) print; $Meta Platforms(META.US) and $Tesla(TSLA.US) both advanced. TSLA raised Cybertruck prices. S&P 2026 EPS estimates continued to climb on AI and energy strength, pushing P/E to 21.0x and a forward earnings yield of 4.7%, matching the 10-year yield for the first time since early 2024. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining 2027-30 earnings estimates, the commoditization of unsupervised autonomous driving technology, and an extreme valuation (6x PEG, highest by far among Mag 8 stocks).

I expect $Meta Platforms(META.US) to continue to underperform the S&P 500 near-term as the outcome of a $1 trillion trial in Northern CA overhangs the stock. Like tobacco litigation 30 years ago, $Meta Platforms(META.US) is being sued by California and a multi-state coalition of attorneys general who have argued that $Meta Platforms(META.US) designed Facebook and Instagram to be addictive to children and teens, improperly collected their data, and misled the public about the platforms' safety. The trial in federal court in Oakland before U.S. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers who was appointed by Barack Obama is likely to overhang the stock until the advisory jury renders a verdict in October. The advisory jury is hearing the evidence and issues a verdict; the judge is the ultimate decision-maker on liability, penalties, and remedies. On appeal, the case would go to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which is widely viewed as one of the more liberal circuits in the U.S. federal court system.

Here’s a profile by CNBC of U.S. District Judge Yvonne Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers, who is presiding over the $Meta Platforms(META.US) trial in Oakland, CA where a group of state attorney generals seek up to $1.4 trillion in damages.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) remains the worst YTD performer (-20%) of all Mag 8 stocks, with only $Meta Platforms(META.US) (-15% YTD) which is facing an existential threat to its core business given a $1.4 trillion consumer liability trial that got underway this week also in the red. NDX overall is up +16% YTD, fueled by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (+16%), $Apple(AAPL.US) (+15%.), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) (+12%). TSLA’s troubles are due to lower than expected auto gross margins in its core EV business and a slower than expected scale up of its unsupervised autonomy efforts due to efficacy and safety concerns/an abundance of caution.

Bitcoin continued its rally on Friday (+7%) putting the token on track for its best weekly gain (+22%) in more than three years. The surge started earlier this week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the U.S. government would double the size of its purchase of longer-dated Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. While minuscule compared to typical Fed-led QE programs which normally amount to multi-trillion-dollar buy programs, the Treasury action represents an important signal that the Administration is intent on coordinating policy to stop the rise in long dated treasury yields which remain near their highest levels since 2007.

Huge disconnect between $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls’ over-the-top autonomy expectations and $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock price. which has underperformed for 5 years (TSLA +51%, NDX +98%). It’s not that $Tesla(TSLA.US) won’t some day solve for unsupervised autonomy. It’s just that everyone else in the auto industry will as well, so TSLA’s 2026 P/E of 200x and forward PEG of 5.7x makes no sense.

Watching $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls on X is like watching a table of college students at a bar whooping it up as they down Tequila shots. As my wife observing them recently said to me: “They think they’re doing something.”

U.S. stocks rose (SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.6%) as tech advanced after Anthropic’s 2Q revenue jumped 14-fold from the same period in 2025, reinforcing sustained AI spending. 10yr treasury yields and oil edged lower while Bitcoin, gold, and silver gained. September Fed hike odds fell to 30% amid last week’s weak retail sales data. Korean chipmakers and U.S. tech hardware rose pre-mkt on surging AI demand. S&P 2026 EPS estimates reached $362 (+30% YoY), implying a 21.6x forward P/E matching the 10-year yield for the first time since early 2024, and before that the 2000 internet bubble. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining forward earnings estimates, intensifying autonomous competition, and an elevated valuation.

I rarely see $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls on X posting on whether TSLA is cheap or expensive. It seems that since they love the products and leadership team they don’t care about the valuation. But at a 2026 P/E of 200x and long-term expected growth of +35%, it will be hard for an investor buying today to make money at TSLA’s current valuation (5.7x PEG; avg Mag 8 stock 2.4x PEG). For those who say valuation doesn’t matter, remember this basic rule of investing: Loving the product doesn’t mean you should love the stock.

$Uber Tech(UBER.US) Stock Looks Cheap.