Jensen Huang affair puts $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)’s future at risk, with no clear successor to the renowned CEO
Annie Palmer
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US): Huang Exit Might Rattle AI Mood, Not Growth: Bloomberg Intelligence
Robert Schiffman November 9, 2026The possibility that Nvidia's investigation could lead to Jensen Huang's exit as CEO could spark negative sentiment across AI, given his central roles setting company strategy and serving as the industry's most prominent spokesman. Yet our scenario is for little near- to medium-term effect on Nvidia's growth prospects, cash generation and ability to fund customers, as well as the broader AI ecosystem -- or, ultimately, its credit quality -- as the board has expressed confidence in Huang and said it has no reason to believe that company secrets were compromised. That points to little lasting read-through to hyperscaler credit quality or valuations, even if equity markets initially extrapolate the risk of a Huang departure into a broader AI selloff.G
US stocks rose pre-market (SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.3%) as Brent crude fell 1.1% to $97/bbl on Trump’s more conciliatory Iran comments, offsetting $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)’s -4.4% drop after CEO Jensen Huang admitted to an extended affair with a suspected Chinese spy; the board is investigating but sees no company secrets or national security compromised. Other tech stocks were mixed. Despite fears that Democratic congressional control could slow the buildout of AI data centers, chip demand is expected to exceed supply for the next few years and valuations remain compelling (e.g. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) 2027 P/E 19x). Easing energy prices as the war nears an end should support equities, with strong S&P 2026 EPS growth (+33% YoY) implying a 20x P/E. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to a stretched valuation, negative earnings revisions, and continued commoditization of autonomous technology.
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I doubt Jensen Huang will be able to remain as $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO. This could put short-term pressure on the stock of the second most valuable company in the world. He has no natural successor within the company. While Huang has not committed any crime or tort, his code of conduct and judgment will be called into question which will likely result in his removal by the NVDA Board. While I don’t see long-term value impairment, many portfolio managers will reduce their $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) holdings in the coming weeks as a result of uncertainty over who could succeed Jensen as NVDA CEO.
The company’s board said in a statement Sunday it has no reason to believe either the company’s secrets or national security were compromised and expressed confidence in the CEO’s leadership. A committee of independent directors helped by outside counsel would oversee the probe, the board said, and the “inquiry will examine all available information.”“Today’s news will not slow NVIDIA. Jensen is committed to continuing to lead NVIDIA as CEO without interruption,” an Nvidia spokesman said in a statement.Jensen Huang’s Email to Company - Sunday 11/8/2026: I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.Throughout my life, my family has given me love and support. They deserve my honesty and loyalty. Instead, I let them down and damaged the life we built together. I take full responsibility for what I did and the hurt I caused, and I accept the criticism that comes with it.To my wife and family: I love you. I know an apology cannot undo what I have done. I hope our family will heal and that, over time, I can earn back your trust.To my colleagues at Nvidia, including those I have worked alongside for decades, our board, partners, and shareholders around the world: you deserve better from me. Leading Nvidia is the privilege of my life. My responsibility is to serve you and be worthy of your trust. I have fallen short of that responsibility. I am fully committed to Nvidia and will work to earn back your confidence.Regarding the national security concerns raised in news reports, NVIDIA’s Board of Directors has initiated an independent investigation. I support the investigation and will cooperate fully. I love our country and our company, and I am committed to protecting NVIDIA and supporting America’s national security. I am proud and grateful to be an American.My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.G![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Yesterday’s -6% NDX decline caused by the Dems’ sweep of the House and Senate in the midterms seemed like short-term thinking yesterday and seems even more so today. The decline was based on the thesis that Dems will slow the buildout of AI data centers - a thesis not provable with numbers. Concepts not provable with numbers almost always have short shelf lives and I expect by next week we won’t hear about Dems slowing the data center buildout again.
Meanwhile, S&P 500 2026 earnings remain robust at $369 +33% y/y (with no degradation since Tues night) and implies a 2026 P/E of 19.9x, which translates to a 5.0% earnings yield — above the 4.88% 10-yr treasury yield, which has not happened in months (relationship has been inverted). I expect the equity premium to be restored at its normal 50-100bp premium as the Iran war winds down - which the blue wave from the midterms likely accelerates.G
US stocks rebounded pre-market Friday, with the S&P 500 +0.2% and Nasdaq +1.2% following Thursday’s steep selloff, led by tech gains ahead of today’s October jobs report (+65K exp). Investors bet a Democratic Congress sweep would hasten an end to the Iran war, relieving upward pressure on Brent crude (-1.4% to $97/bbl) and 10-year treasury yields (today 4.84%). Most chip stock valuations remain compelling (e.g. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) 2027 P/E 20x vs 2027-31 rev growth of +20% and EPS growth of +25%). AI chip demand is expected to exceed supply for a few years, supporting current valuations. S&P 2026 EPS estimates of $368 imply a 19.9x multiple and 5% earnings yield, slightly above Treasuries for the first time in months. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given its stretched valuation (2026 P/E of 200x vs +45% long term EPS growth, PEG 4.4x), negative forward revisions, and the likely continued commoditization of autonomy.
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NDX plunged -6.4% and SPX fell -4.4%, the market’s worst day since April 2025 as investors bailed from technology shares on speculation that congressional Democrats will clamp down on the artificial-intelligence industry.
A rotation away from AI and toward defensive sectors morphed into a broader rout, with the VIX rising the most in two years to 28 from 17. Bitcoin sank -6%. $SOXX, the semiconductor ETF fell -12%. In a rush for safety, treasury bond yields fell -5.5bp to 4.85% despite higher oil prices (brent crude +4%). $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) -9.3% today and is now down -3% YTD. $Tesla(TSLA.US) -11% and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) -9% as odds of a potential TSLA-SPCX merger fell. Fading AI enthusiasm prompted investors to trim bets of a December Fed rate hike to 66% from 82% yesterday. Tomorrow’s Oct jobs report could extend today’s rout if too strong (>130K) or too weak (if negative). WS consensus for Oct non-farm payrolls is +65K new jobs.G
$Celsius(CELH.US) +8% pre-mkt after 3Q results beat estimates, and the company realigned its business structure as 3 separate units: Core Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar.
THIRD QUARTER RESULTS- Revs $847.2M, +17% y/y, vs $799.9M est- Adj Ebitda $198.6M vs $169.4M est- Adj EPS 41c vs. 34c est- Gross margin 46.8% vs. 48.1% estCOMMENTARY AND CONTEXT- CELSIUS brand revenue decreased by -6% to $356.8M vs $381.0M year ago due to SKU optimization initiatives, shipment timing related to inventory rebalancing, and softness in the club channel.- Alani Nu revenue increased +24% to $410.1M vs $332.0M YoY, due to increased distribution within the PepsiCo DSD system, the successful release of the limited-time Alani Nu Witch’s Brew flavors, and continued strong consumer demand.- Gross profit margin decreased to 46.8% from 51.3% YoY due to continued inflation in commodity costs, primarily aluminum and fuel, as well as a higher mix of DSD sales.G
The midterms-fueled rotation continued (SPX -0.1%, NDX -0.7%), with economically sensitive and consumer names outperforming chipmakers. Brent rose +1.3% to $96/bbl after yesterday’s 8% drop; the 10-year yield eased to 4.87%. The rotation in Asia was even more extreme, with Samsung and SK Hynix falling over 7% on post-Democratic data-center regulation fears. Tech was mixed ($NVIDIA(NVDA.US) flat; $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US), $Dell Tech(DELL.US) down; $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US) up) and Musk-led names retreated further ($Tesla(TSLA.US) -1.7%, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) -1.1%) following Dems’ midterm sweep. Robust 2026 S&P EPS estimates (+33% to $369) imply a 20.8x P/E (4.8% yield, just below Treasury yields), with further yield declines expected as the Iran war ends. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given its 220x 2026 P/E (PEG 5.0x) amid continued commoditization of autonomy and persistent negative revisions.
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$Cava(CAVA.US) -11% AH after 3Q results missed ests, and FY’26 guidance fell short. The company blamed the impact of this summer’s nationwide outbreak of Cyclospora and broader concerns around fresh produce consumption.
3Q:- SSS 3.1% vs 3.3% est- Revs $356.4M vs 358.7M est- Restuarant margins 23.4% vs 23.64% est- Adj EBITDA $42.3M vs $44.1M est- Adj EPS $.11 vs $.12 esFY’26 guide:- SSS 6-7% vs 6.6% est (prior guide was 4.5%-6.5%)- Adj EBITDA $184-$189M vs $190M est and $181-$191M prior guideAt FY’26 P/E of 114x vs forward rev growth of +18% and Adj eps growth of +32%, CAVA is not cheap. Mgmt is not offering a favorable 4Q outlook despite new salmon bowl and barbecue pita chips intros.G
$Uber Tech(UBER.US) +7% as 3Q results topped reduced expectations; 4Q guidance bracketed sell side expectations; moving full speed ahead to develop autonomous ride options
By Robert Lavelle and Ryan Vlastelica11/04/2026 07:38:23(Bloomberg) -- Uber Technologies shares are up 0.7% in premarket trading after the rideshare company’s results came in above subdued expectations.FOURTH QUARTER FORECAST- Gross bookings $63.25B -$65.25B, vs $64.3B guidance- Adj EPS 95c to 99c vs 98c est- Adj Ebitda $3.13B - $3.23B vs $3.15B estTHIRD QUARTER RESULTS- Gross bookings $59.82B, +20% y/y, vs $59.79B est- Revs $14.77B, +9.6% y/y, vs $14.65B est- Adj Ebitda $2.96B, +31% y/y, vs $2.93B est- Adj net income $1.8B vs $1.78B est- Adj EPS 88c, vs 87c est- Trips 4.06B, +16% y/y, vs 4.12B est- Monthly active platform consumers 215M, +14% y/y, vs 215.27M est- Mobility bookings $29.51B, +18% y/y, vs $29.88B est.- Delivery bookings $28.54B, +22% y/y, s $28.41B est.- Freight bookings $1.77B, +35% y/y, bs $1.48B estCOMMENTARY AND CONTEXT•CEO says, “Our focus on autonomous is now on commercial execution, with approximately 700 fully driverless vehicles expected on Uber by year-end and over 2,000 in 2027”•“We expect to scale autonomous deployments signifi cantly, deploying over 2,000 fully driverless vehicles on Uber by the end of 2027, roughly half in the U.S. and half internationally,” CEO says•CEO says, “We expect to begin fully driverless testing with Nuro and Lucid this quarter, ahead of a commercial launch in the Bay Area in Q1 2027 that will operate fully driverless from day one”•“We also expect further driverless deployments with Avride in 2027, with supervised NVIDIA and Rivian deployments beginning in 2027 and 2028, respectively, before transitioning to fully driverless operations,” CEO saysG
Markets love political gridlock when the President wants to go in one direction and Congress wants to go in a different direction. In short, nothing gets done, which is the market’s fondest wish.
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$Tesla(TSLA.US) -4.8% to $379, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) -5.7% pre-mkt to $133
Wall Street Journal 11/4/2026As James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Texas’s Senate seat, made his closing pitch to voters, he had one man in mind—Elon Musk. The billionaire had poured more than $160 million into the race to oppose him.Talarico used the spending as a rallying cry to his base, framing the race as one between voters and big money. “It’s David versus Goliath,” he said to supporters at a closing rally.Musk—the billionaire and Republican megadonor whose business empire is anchored in Texas—funded a flurry of ads bashing Talarico and supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP’s nominee for Senate. In all, Republicans outspent Democrats on ads by roughly two to one.But Texas delivered a solid rebuke to Republicans, with voters ousting Gov. Greg Abbott in favor of Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa and propelling Talarico to a stunning victory.Hinojosa’s victory is a huge upset for the state’s Republican party, who have held the governorship for more than 30 years. Hinojosa’s win is also a blow to the AI industry. Texas welcomed data center companies who were unable to get permits in other states. Its status as a data center hub may now be over.G
U.S. stocks rose pre-market (S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.6%) after Democrats won House and Senate control in a landslide, neutralizing Trump’s remaining term amid rebukes on the Iran war, trade, and economy. Brent crude fell to $103/bbl and the 10-year yield to 4.92%, while Bitcoin, gold and silver surged. The result signals a possible 2028 Democratic White House, which would portend potential higher taxes on the rich, tariff rollbacks, and lower defense spending. Tech mostly advanced, but $Tesla(TSLA.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) each dropped 4% on Musk’s Trump ties and reduced merger odds. Strong 2026 S&P earnings growth (EPS $369 +33% y/y, P/E 20.5x) underpin equities, though TSLA’s valuation seems excessive amid declining future earnings estimates, and increased autonomous competition from $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $ANZN, $Baidu(BIDU.US) and others.
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$Match(MTCH.US) -1% AH after guiding to a bit lighter than exp 4Q revs and EBITDA. 3Q actuals were in line.
FOURTH QUARTER FORECAST- Revs $865M - $875M vs $871M est.- Adj Ebitda $327.5M - $332.5M, vs $331.2M est.THIRD QUARTER RESULTS- EPS 73c vs 73c est- Revs $891.2M vs $892.4M est- Tinder direct revenue $480.0M vs $474.9M est.- Hinge direct revenue $220.6M vs $224.8M est- Adj operating margin 39% vs 37.2% est. - Total payers 13.8M vs 13.64M est- Adj Ebitda $344.5M vs $331.9M est. COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT- FY 2026 Total Rev expected to be flat YoY vs 0% est- FY 2026 Adj EBITDA margin guided to be 38.8% vs 38.2% exp.G
$Apple(AAPL.US) -3% AH after offering a 1Q gross margin guide that fell short of ests (45-46% vs 46.7% est). 1Q rev guidance of +7-10% was ahead of ests (+6.1% est). 4Q revs and EPS beat ests behind iPhone strength despite weaker than expected China results.
FOURTH QUARTER RESULTS- Total Rev. $114.48B +12% y/y vs $113.5B est. - EPS $2.10 vs. $2.00 est- China Rev. $17.54B vs $18.75B est. - IPhone Rev. $57.6B +17% y/y, estimate $56.49 billion- Mac Rev. $10.8B, +24% y/y, vs $9.7B est- IPad Rev. $6.23B, -10% y/y vs $6.89B est.- Wearables, home and accessories $8.3B, -7.9% y/y, $9.0B est- Services Rev $31.57B, +9.8% y/y, vs $31.58B est- Gross margin 47.9% vs 47.6% est- Cash and cash equivalents $36.3B vs $46.8B est1Q Guidance - Total revs +7-10% vs +6.1% est- Gross margin 45-46% vs 46.72% estAAPL stock was up about +1% AH until the gross margin guidance was provided.G![图片 1，共 1 张]()
$Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls excited by a $SpaceX(SPCX.US) - $Tesla(TSLA.US) merger should look at what happened to Lumentum Holdings stock ($Lumentum(LITE.US)) this morning after $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) offered a 24% premium to $Lumentum(LITE.US)’s 10/28/2026 closing price of $914, or $1,132 per $Lumentum(LITE.US) share. The stock is is currently down -15% to $750/share as $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) stock to be received (4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share) has dropped by -26% since last Wednesday when rumors about the deal came public. When an an acquirer uses its own stock to pay for an acquisition, traders and merger arbs invariably sell down the acquirer’s stock particularly if there is a long time frame between deal announcement and deal close (as in MRVL-LITE, likely first half of 2028). A SPCX-TSLA deal given its size and complexity could take just as long.
Marvell Buys Lumentum for $115 Billion.▪Marvell Technology Inc. agreed to pay $115 billion for Lumentum Holdings Inc., one of the largest chip deals on record.▪The price tag has already shrunk by about a quarter as Marvell is paying entirely in its own shares, and investors have been selling them since reports of the talks surfaced.▪Marvell management framed the deal as a race to own the shift from copper to optics inside AI data centers, with the combined company expected to rank among the five largest AI infrastructure chip companies.Piero Cingari11/02/2026 08:49:36 [BZG]Benzinga NewswireOn paper, Marvell Technology Inc.$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) just agreed to pay $115 billion for Lumentum Holdings Inc. $Lumentum(LITE.US), one of the largest chip deals on record.In practice, the price tag has already shrunk by about a quarter.Marvell is paying entirely in its own shares, and investors have been selling them since reports of the talks surfaced last Wednesday.Under the official terms announced Monday, Lumentum holders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares for each share they own. That valued Lumentum at about $1,132 a share, or a 23.9% premium, based on Oct. 28 closing prices. Lumentum holders will end up with about a third of the combined company, and the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2028.The market has since rewritten those terms.Marvell has dropped 25% from its Oct. 28 close, shedding roughly $55 billion in market value, as investors balked at the price and the dilution.The stock fell another 4.5% to $187.39 in early Monday trading.Because the deal is paid entirely in stock, Marvell’s slide has also reduced the offer’s value.The 4.5 Marvell shares promised for each Lumentum share were worth about $1,132 when the terms were set. At Monday’s premarket price, they are worth about $849, a quarter less.Management framed the deal as a race to own the shift from copper to optics inside AI data centers.“AI infrastructure is undergoing a fundamental architectural shift toward optical connectivity, creating an opportunity that comes along once in a generation,” Marvell Chairman and CEO Matt Murphy said.“The companies that move first and help define this transition will set the standard for decades to come,” he added.On a joint call with analysts, Murphy said he expects the combined group to rank among the five largest AI infrastructure chip companies.Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston, who will join Marvell’s board, pointed to the size of the prize.“Joining Marvell creates a company uniquely positioned to capitalize on a market opportunity of $550 billion and generate significant, sustainable stockholder value,” Hurlston said.“Surging AI data traffic requires rapid hardware innovation, and this combination enhances our ability to deliver next-generation solutions at scale,” he added.Marvell brings interconnect, switching and custom AI chips. Lumentum adds lasers, optical transceivers, optical circuit switching and its own indium phosphide manufacturing. The companies expect more than $1 billion in annual cost synergies and a deal that adds to Marvell’s adjusted earnings in the first year after closing.G![图片 1，共 1 张]()
NDX (-3.7%) getting crushed today on disappointing $Intel(INTC.US) and other tech earnings and uncertainty about returns on huge AI capital buildout. Key drivers of today’s sell-off: $Intel(INTC.US) -30% after guiding to weaker than expected 4Q revs on sluggish PC volume growth; this week’s weaker than expected earnings from bellwethers $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) and $Amazon(AMZN.US); continued increase in capital spending from tech heavyweights; hawkish Fed commentary pointing to another rate hike by year-end are the key drivers of the negative sentiment. Offsetting these negatives: 10-yr treasury yields have declined from 5.3% on 9/30 to 4.94% today, which makes equities more attractive vs bonds.
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Lot of debate on $Amazon(AMZN.US) (-3%) which is down today for two main reasons: 1/ Online growth continues to decelerate sharply (+2% YoY - slowest since 2023/1Q) and 2/ Much higher than expected CapEx (3Q $77.3B vs $58.8B exp; FY 2026 CapEx guidance held at $220B). IMO, the CapEx arms race without being able to show compelling returns until early-to-mid 2027 is the main issue holding back investors from buying the $Amazon(AMZN.US) dip.
On valuation, AMZN looks cheap at a 2027 P/E of 22.1x (EV/EBITDA 9.2x) vs 15% long-term rev growth and eps growth.G
U.S. stocks fell sharply pre-market (SPX -1.0%, NDX -2.2%) after weak $Intel(INTC.US) and $Amazon(AMZN.US) results and guidance accelerated a rotation out of tech amid slowing growth. INTC plunged 25% on a soft PC demand outlook projected to persist through mid-2027; AMZN missed overall revenue estimates even as AWS beat and CapEx was higher than expected. Tech peers fell sharply with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) -2.9%, $Broadcom(AVGO.US) -4.0%, $Micron Tech(MU.US) -5.2%, and $Dell Tech(DELL.US) -10%. Brent crude rose 1.6% to $117/bbl. 10-year yield fell to 4.93% as investors sought safety. #goon BTC dropped 1.5% to $75.6K post Binance’s $6.3B North Korea-linked hack. Gold and silver declined. S&P 2026 EPS estimates remain robust at $369 (+33% YoY) despite the weakness in tech. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US).
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$Amazon(AMZN.US) -6% AH Amazon after 3Q net sales missed and Operating Income beat ests, while AWS revs beat. 4Q guidance for Revs and Operating Income were below expectations. 2026FY CapEx guidance of $220M was re-affirmed even as 3Q Capex came in high.
THIRD QUARTER RESULTS- Revs $201.9B vs $202.3B est- EPS $1.89 vs $1.97 est- Operating income $28.1B vs $26.1B est- CapEx $77.3B vs $58.8B est- AWS $46.0B vs $45.7B est- Online stores $68.5B vs $69.6B est- Advertising $19.6B vs $20.9B est- Operating margin 13.9% vs 12.9% est- North America operating margin +7.7% vs 6.6% est- Internat’l oper. margin 3.7% vs 3.56% est- CapEx $77.3B vs $58.9B est, but kept FY’26 CapEx at prior guide of $220BFOURTH QUARTER FORECAST- Net sales $240.0B-$247.0B vs $244.5B est- Operating income $28.5B-$33.5 billion, vs $32.99B est Conf call 5pm ETG
$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) +8% on soaring consumer demand for its blockbuster obesity treatments Mounjaro, Zepbound, and new once-a-day pill Foundayo. This has led LLY to increase its revenue guidance for the second time in 3 months to $91B-$92B from $85-$87B. I expect further positive revisions as LLY focuses on TAM expansion by reducing adverse gastrointestinal effects of its weight loss drugs and making the product cheaper (LLY Direct, Medicare Bridge program to seniors).
FY’2026 FORECAST- Sees $91.0B to $92.0B, saw $85.0B to $87.0B vs $88.85B est - Adj EPS $35.00 to $36.00, saw $35.50 to $36.50, vs $32.66 est - reduction due to small acquisitions 3Q RESULTS- Adj EPS $7.48 vs. $5.59 est- Revs $24.4B vs $22.5B est◦Zepbound rev $5.35B vs $5.01B est◦Mounjaro rev $10.72B vs $9.95B est◦Foundayo rev $184M vs $231.2M est◦Trulicity rev $904M vs $851M est◦ Jardiance $1.52B vs $852M estCOMMENTARY AND CONTEXT- CEO comments: Revenue growth was driven by broad global consumer demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, the global launches of Foundayo, expanded U.S. coverage for obesity care and a doubling in our newest products in oncology, immunology and neuroscience."- Regulatory progress included U.S. FDA approvals of Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with type 2 diabetes; - Pipeline highlights included positive topline results from a head-to-head Phase 3 trial of retatrutide versus Ozempic 2 mg in adults with type 2 diabetes,- At a 2027 P/E of 29x, with 2027-30 rev growth of +15% and EPS growth of +20%, $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) still looks cheap despite its YTD perf of +30% and 1-year perf of +58%.G
$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) -9% AH after 3Q adv revs, earnings and free cash flow missed expectations. Cloud revs beat. 3Q CapEx came in lighter than expected. FY’2026 CapEx guidance (prior $195B-$205B) will be updated on the earnings call at 430p ET.
3Q actuals- Revs (ex-TAC) $111.2B vs $111.2B est- Operating income $40.6B vs $43.2B est- EPS $2.12 vs $3.02 est- Adv Revs $82.0B vs $83.6B est- Search revs $63.3B vs $64.8B est- YouTube revs $11.2B vs $11.4B est- Cloud revs $30.7B vs $29.1B est- Capexp $51.4B vs $55.8B est- Free cash flow -9.1B vs -$3.5B est - One-time losses on equity securities reduced net income and EPS by -$6.7B and -$.55 respectively. Earnings call 430pm ET.G![图片 1，共 1 张]()
The Fed kept short-term rate rates unchanged in a 10-2 vote (last month’s decision to raise rates was unanimous). There were two notable changes in the language: 1/ Economic activity was described as expanding at a “strong pace” rather than “a solid pace” prior; and 2/ A sentence was inserted that “the accumulation of more information will help determine a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2% goal” which was likely to justify no rate hike a week before the mid-term election with core YOY inflation of 3.1% well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Waiting a few months can give the Fed time to see where oil prices go as the situation in Iran winds up, and to evaluate the impact of the build out of AI memory centers and infrastructure.G
U.S. stocks were modestly higher pre-market (SPX +0.1%, NDX +0.3%) as rising oil prices offset AI gains. Brent crude topped $115/barrel on reports of possible U.S. strikes on Iran after midterms. Investors awaited a likely hawkish hold Fed decision and earnings from $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) today and $Amazon(AMZN.US) tomorrow. $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) surged on blockbuster results and its outlook that long-term memory demand will exceed supply through at least 2030, lifting Samsung and $Micron Tech(MU.US) in sympathy. Most tech names rose, with $Tesla(TSLA.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) higher amid continued merger speculation, while $Robinhood(HOOD.US) fell on weak 3Q results. S&P 2026 EPS of $369 implies a 20.9x P/E (4.8% yield), inverted to the 5.01% 10-year, which is likely to ease as Iran tensions fade. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given its extended valuation, negative earnings revisions, and our view that autonomous driving technology becomes a commodity over time.