Gary Black Tracker
2025.08.12 08:37

Be wary of posters on X who say “$Tesla(TSLA.US) is going to $x” without providing analytical support (DCF, P/E/G, SOTP) showing why. That’s just pumping the stock.

Our $310 PT is based on our 2030 Adj EPS est of $12.50 (vs $8.75 WS consensus), a 1.75x PEG and 25% long-term earnings growth = $550 value in 2030, discounted back to 2025 at a 13.6% cost of equity (4.0% 10yrTY, 6% equity risk premium, 1.6x beta) = ($550 / (1.136^4.5)) = $310.

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