$Oracle(ORCL.US)Michael Burry, the real-life prototype of "The Big Short," is shorting Oracle (ORCL) through Scion Asset Management, holding put options and directly shorting, betting on a further collapse from $198.

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​Core Reasons for Shorting

Strategic Confusion (Ego-Driven):

Burry criticizes Oracle for abandoning its asset-light software model (database licensing) with 70-80% gross margins, shifting to heavy-asset AI infrastructure—buying land to build data centers and purchasing NVIDIA GPUs, calling it founder Larry Ellison's "vanity" gamble.

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Debt Black Hole:

$95 billion in debt (the largest non-financial issuer), CapEx soaring to $50 billion/year, Q2 free cash flow turning negative at $10 billion, debt/EBITDA spiking to 4x, with every penny of interest cost crushing cash flow.

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Rapid Asset Depreciation:

GPUs are affected by Moore's Law, with computing power doubling every 18 months, making massive hardware purchases quickly turn into "e-waste," lacking a core business safety net (unlike Microsoft with Office).

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Bubble Vehicle:

Burry calls ORCL a "pure AI bubble vehicle," with its stock price entirely reliant on AI cloud narratives (RPO $523 billion with only 14% conversion). A cooling demand or corporate budget cuts would spell disaster.

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Validity Analysis of the Argument

High Probability Trigger:

Historical cases (WeWork, Snowflake) show that heavy-asset chasing of trends + high debt = collapse; ORCL has already fallen 40% from its September high, and if the $175 technical support breaks, a halving within six months is reasonable.

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Limited Counter-Risk:

OpenAI's $300 billion contract extends to 2027, gross margins have fallen to 38.5%, and 2027 EPS realization is distant, with longs facing an annualized 5%+ short cost.

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Burry's Sharp Logic: Oracle is like a "successful pianist switching to boxing"—low odds of winning, losing everything.