📈 NETFLIX EARNINGS PREVIEW: 3 SIGNALS TO WATCH TOMORROW

Tomorrow (Jan 20), after the market closes, Netflix reports Q4 FY2025 results. Here’s what the investor community is focused on:

📊 Core Expectations (IG Bank Estimates):

• Revenue: $11.97B (+16.8% YoY)
• EPS: $0.55 (+29.4% YoY)
• Ad Revenue: $1.08B → rapid scaling of the ad-tier is key.

🎯 The Big Themes:

1. Growth Shift & Monetization: International markets are now the primary growth engine. All eyes are on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and pricing power as U.S. growth moderates.
2. Advertising in the Spotlight: The festive Q4 is a major test for ad spend and scaling. Progress here is crucial for the hybrid subscription-ad model thesis.
3. Engagement & Churn: Did year-end engagement hold up? Management’s comments on churn will test the limits of Netflix’s pricing power.

⚠️ The Overhang: The $82.7B Warner Bros. Discovery Bid

This proposed acquisition will dominate the earnings call. Investors will seek clarity on:

• Strategic rationale & integration plans.
• Regulatory risks (U.S./EU scrutiny expected).
• Impact on future content spend and cash flow. A major source of potential stock volatility.

📈 Sentiment & Outlook:

• Stock: +5% over past year (underperformed market). Options imply a ~7.3% post-earnings move.
• Analyst Consensus: "Moderate Buy"; Avg. Price Target $124.80 (~41.7% upside).
• FY26 Guidance Anticipated: Revenue ~$51.6B, EPS ~$3.24.

🔍 Saxo Bank’s 3 Key Signals to Watch:

1. ARPU – The best gauge of monetization effectiveness.
2. Operating Margin & Cash Generation – The shift to profitability focus.
3. Churn & Engagement – The foundation for pricing power and stability.

🎯 POLL: How are you trading $Netflix(NFLX.US) into earnings?

🟢 Bullish – ads & pricing power will impress
🔴 Cautious – watching churn & WBD deal risks
🟡 Waiting for guidance & clarity first

💬 Drop your takes below!