Warning: The fault lines under the US stock market bull run—a fragile prosperity

The U.S. stock market is currently staging a dangerous "song of ice and fire." On the surface, it's an AI frenzy and record-high indices, but beneath lies spreading cracks. This is not alarmism—it's the reality we must face.

🧊 Core Reality: Dancing on the Edge of a Cliff
The current bull market rests on three fragile pillars:

Pillar One: Unwavering faith in AI. Valuations have priced in five years of perfect growth; any earnings hiccup could trigger a stampede.

Pillar Two: A steadfast bet on the Fed. The market is wishfully pricing in "rate cuts this year," but sticky inflation leaves the Fed no room to retreat, and rate-cut expectations are being repeatedly delayed and diluted.

Pillar Three: The inertia of liquidity. Funds are forced into the few remaining "winners," creating the most extreme market concentration in history (the top seven giants account for over 30%). This isn’t a healthy bull market—it’s a liquidity-driven "short-squeeze rally."

⚠️ The "Real Data" You Must Know

Retail investors' call-option buying has hit a historic peak, a classic sign of overheating sentiment.

Corporate insiders (CEOs, CFOs) are selling their own shares at the fastest pace in nearly two years.

"Soaring Treasury yields" and "rising stock prices" are occurring simultaneously—a rare divergence that usually doesn’t last.

🛡 The Most Rational Action Plan Right Now

Reduce risk exposure: Check your portfolio. Is it overly concentrated in tech stars? Increase allocations to cash, consumer staples, or short-term bond funds.

Shift focus: Move from "chasing gains" to "seeking safety margins." Look for stable, high-interest-resistant, and reasonably valued non-hot sectors (e.g., energy, some industrials).

Set discipline: Define your stop-loss and target prices. In times of frenzy, discipline is your only shield.

📌 Conclusion
History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. The current market bears unsettling similarities to the late-’99 dot-com bubble and the late-’21 bull market peak—not an immediate crash, but sharply amplified volatility that eventually bursts the narrative bubble.
True investors don’t lose themselves in euphoria; they calculate risks and probabilities amid the noise.

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