Title: Intel 2026 Earnings Preview: Server CPUs 'In Short Supply', Can 14A Process Technology Trigger a Second Comeback?
Performance Overview
Revenue Forecast: $13.39 billion
EPS (Earnings Per Share) Forecast: $0.08
Core Game: Short-term focus on server capacity flexibility, long-term on 14A foundry landing.
01|Server CPU: Is This "Supply Shortage" Wave a Lifesaver?
AI applications are currently transitioning from "generative" to "agent-based," leading to an unexpected surge in demand for general computing power!
Positive: Intel's pricing power is improving, inventory turnover is accelerating, and it is expected to deliver results that exceed expectations.
Risk: If production capacity cannot keep up, it will be handing market share to AMD. The long-term battle for market share remains intense.
02|Data Center Recovery vs. PC Business Pressure
Intel is facing a "double-edged" business distribution:
Data Center: Major tech giants are increasing investments, which is expected to become the performance engine for Q4 and support cash flow transformation.
PC Market: Rising memory chip prices (accounting for 25%-30% of costs) have suppressed end demand, and with Arm/AMD's encroachment, the client business is under significant pressure.
03|18A Stabilized, But 14A Is the Real "Game Changer"?
Technical Progress: 18A's smooth mass production has stabilized the situation, but the market's eyes are all on 14A.
Mystery Clients: Rumors suggest Nvidia, Google, and Apple are all watching 14A's engineering PDK.
Strategic Discipline: Intel has clearly stated, "No rabbits, no nets"—meaning it won't blindly expand 14A capacity without securing enough orders. This implies that the foundry business won't see real revenue until after 2028.
04|2026 Capex: The Most Critical Signal
Institutions predict a slight year-on-year increase in capital expenditure this year.
Surge Signal: If Intel suddenly significantly raises Capex, it most likely means a breakthrough in the foundry business (a major client has signed!).
Personal View: Intel is currently in a "tug-of-war before dawn." Short-term, it relies on the server business to recover; long-term, it depends on 14A for survival. The $0.08 EPS is just the surface—the real focus is on capacity allocation capabilities and major clients' foundry intentions.
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