The earnings reports of Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta laid the foundation for NVIDIA's earnings report.
A smartphone screen displays the stock price of NVIDIA Corporation on the NASDAQ market, with an NVIDIA chip visible in the background, overlaid with a green arrow. · Quartz ·Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images
1. Direct Customer Relationships
These four companies are the largest buyers of NVIDIA's data center business (especially AI chips). They are building and expanding data centers globally to support their own and their customers' AI model training and inference.
A significant portion of their capital expenditures, particularly "cloud capital expenditures," flows to NVIDIA's GPUs (e.g., H100, B200), networking equipment (e.g., InfiniBand), and software ecosystem.
2. Key Signals in Earnings Reports
In the earnings reports of the four tech giants, the market primarily focuses on the following signals that "pave the way" for NVIDIA:
Upward revisions to capital expenditure guidance: This is the most direct signal. If all four companies indicate they will increase capital expenditures this year (primarily for AI infrastructure), this almost directly forecasts future orders for NVIDIA.
Microsoft: Due to its deep ties with OpenAI and investments in Copilot, its expenditure guidance is the top priority.
Meta: Mark Zuckerberg has explicitly stated aggressive AI investments, making its expenditure plans critical for NVIDIA.
Google, Amazon: As cloud service providers, they must meet their own AI needs while also providing AI computing services to customers.
AI Revenue Growth:
Accelerated revenue growth in cloud businesses (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud), especially mentions like "AI services contributed X% of growth," proves the monetization capability of AI investments. Strong demand drives continued investment.
Meta's ad revenue growth: If its AI-driven ad recommendation system delivers above-expected revenue, it proves AI investments are paying off, supporting further investment.
Management commentary: CEOs and CFOs expressing enthusiasm for AI investments during earnings calls are important sentiment indicators.
3. The Specific Transmission Chain
Strong earnings from the giants (especially AI-related) → Optimism about AI's future, upward revisions to capital expenditure guidance → More orders for NVIDIA → Continued high growth in NVIDIA's data center revenue → Strong NVIDIA earnings.
Recent earnings confirmations (e.g., Q1/Q2 2024 earnings):
Microsoft, Google, and Meta's capital expenditures exceeded expectations, with strong future guidance, directly boosting market optimism for NVIDIA.
Amazon's AWS growth reaccelerating also signals a recovery in cloud demand.
These giants are all developing their own large models (e.g., Gemini, Llama, ChatGPT on Azure) and AI applications, which require massive amounts of NVIDIA chips.
Conclusion and Outlook
Thus, before NVIDIA's earnings release:
If the four giants' earnings collectively show "strong capital expenditures, AI revenue growth," the market will be extremely bullish on NVIDIA's earnings, potentially driving its stock price up in advance.
If any giant's expenditures fall short or turn cautious, it will raise concerns about NVIDIA's growth sustainability.
In short, these four companies' earnings are like reports on "upstream miners'" movements, while NVIDIA is the "shovel seller." When the miners (giants) announce plans to expand exploration and dig up more gold (AI revenue), the most certain and direct beneficiary is NVIDIA, the seller of the best shovels (top-tier AI chips). Their earnings paint a clear, highly certain trajectory for NVIDIA's performance.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US)
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