Four golden questions

Should we sell gold now?

Can we buy in the gold bull market now?

When will the market trend end?

Who will take over the gold that has skyrocketed in the end?

I think many people now would say it's due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the secret arrest of Venezuela's national leader by Trump, the scramble for Greenland's resources, the Middle East situation, and geopolitical issues.

Most people have a misconception, thinking this wave of gold's rise is driven by geopolitical issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East situation. If you only see this level, at best you can make some small profits, but you might get shaken out midway. Do you know why? Because you haven't truly understood the underlying logic of this gold bull market. Only by understanding this underlying logic can you have faith and confidence to steadily ride this wave. So what is the underlying logic of this gold bull market? The continuous weakening of the US dollar's credibility! Global central banks are scrambling to buy gold as a hedge. Ultimately, the long-term driver of this trend isn't retail investors or even short-term institutional funds from Wall Street. The real big players are the central banks of various countries. Since the main force is the central banks, we only need to understand three things to judge the major direction of gold.

1: Why are central banks buying gold?

2: Will central banks continue to buy in the future?

3: When will central banks sell?

Once you understand these three things, you'll have the knowledge and confidence to hold onto this gold wave.

First, let's look at the first question: Why are central banks rushing to buy gold? Look at how the US has been launching global trade tariff wars, threatening countries like Russia-Ukraine and Iran with Israel, the Greenland incident, and even not sparing its own NATO allies. During the pandemic, the US implemented monetary easing, printed money like crazy, and then raised interest rates. Now, US debt has soared to $37 trillion, with annual interest payments alone reaching $1.2 trillion. The US's annual fiscal revenue is only about $4.8 trillion. How long can the US sustain such interest payments? The US owes other countries massive debts. Imagine if your country couldn't repay you—wouldn't you panic? The key is you don't even dare to pressure them! In the Russia-Ukraine war, the US directly froze Russia's overseas assets.

This incident woke up countries worldwide. Most countries hold large amounts of US debt. Every country fears its assets being frozen. That's why 43% of global central banks have been aggressively increasing gold reserves in recent years, with another half explicitly stating they will continue to do so in the coming year.

Countries are worried about the US dollar's credibility and are hoarding gold to hedge risks, using it as an anchor to stabilize their currencies and exchange rates. Do you get it now?

Let me remind everyone: Global countries aren't buying gold to make small profits but to stabilize their currencies and exchange rates. Without sufficient gold reserves, exchange rates and currencies can easily collapse. This is the core purpose of central banks hoarding gold.

Focus on three points to avoid guessing its price:

1: The US policy turns dovish and stops global exploitation.

2: Central banks aren't selling.

3: A tech boom brings global growth, driving economic prosperity. By then, everyone will focus on business, and gold as a safe-haven asset will naturally be diverted into business, tech investments, corporate investments, stocks, etc., causing prices to drop.

I've summarized these views through many channels. If you have any thoughts, let's discuss in the comments.