Oil prices rebounded after the U.S.-Iran talks, but market caution remains dominant

After the U.S. and Iran held talks this Friday, international oil prices recovered, and market attention on the Middle East situation has significantly increased. Iran explicitly rejected the U.S.'s core demand for "zero enrichment," but at the same time signaled a willingness to continue resolving differences through diplomatic channels, preventing the situation from spiraling out of control for now.

Nevertheless, investor sentiment remains cautious. The market generally believes that any potential escalation between the U.S. and Iran could impact energy supplies from this globally critical oil-producing region, thereby raising the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil prices. This is also an important reason for the short-term rise in oil prices.

However, from a broader time perspective, the fundamentals of the crude oil market remain under pressure. Even with a rebound driven by geopolitical factors, major crude oil benchmark prices may still record a decline overall this week, reflecting the market's ongoing concerns about demand prospects and expectations of ample supply.

Overall, the current oil price trend is more dominated by geopolitical risks rather than a substantial improvement in supply-demand structure. Until the direction of U.S.-Iran relations becomes clearer, the crude oil market may maintain a pattern of high volatility, strong sentiment, and heavy event-driven trading.