Tracking the Conflict, Positioning for the Aftermath – Personal Strategy Inside

This is a war with only one winner: Israel.

For the US, a prolonged conflict means massive costs—economic drag, inflation, market pressure—something Trump can't afford heading into the midterms.

My take: all major players want to contain the war, keep it short, and avoid a regional or drawn-out conflict.

What each side wants:

• US & Israel: Primary = eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat. Secondary = regime change, install a friendly gov.
• Iran: Primary = regime survival. Secondary = preserve nuclear program.
• China & Russia: Primary = keep Iran regime intact. Secondary = nuclear program (maybe not even a priority).

Key takeaway: survival is the common goal. The tough talk? Just posturing for leverage. So the war likely won’t drag on. Iran’s biggest loss? Its nuclear program. But it keeps the regime—without that, nothing matters.

My play:

I’ll scale into $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) over time. Fundamentals are solid, momentum strong. But I prefer 70–90 day options, e.g., 260515 C 210 and 260618 C 210.

Near term, NVDA could dip to 160–170 (maybe deeper). Likely slow bleed first, then room to bounce. I’ll layer in, max 25% per entry.

Won’t touch $Intel(INTC.US) or $Sandisk(SNDK.US)
INTC: no earnings support, too risky.
SNDK: cyclical—when cycle turns, risk spikes. Liquidity is also terrible; hard to enter, harder to exit.

⚠️ Just my view, not advice. Markets are risky.