$Circle(CRCL.US) price action actually makes sense if you split drivers vs expectations.

On the way up:

• war → yields up → reserve income ↑

• BTC up → crypto liquidity ↑ → USDC demand narrative

But the regulation hit (no yield on stablecoins) breaks the long-term TAM story. That’s not just earnings — it caps how big the system can get.

Then you had crowded positioning + leverage, so once narrative cracked → forced liquidations.

So it’s not random — it’s macro tailwind → narrative peak → policy reset → leverage unwind.

@Bridge Buzz SG