One of the hottest real estate markets in America

One of the hottest real estate markets in America just became the most lopsided housing market in the entire country and the data shows it happened faster than almost anyone predicted.

According to Redfin's analysis of MLS data, Austin Texas now has 117 percent more home sellers than home buyers meaning there are roughly two sellers competing for every single buyer who shows up to the market.

In December 2025, that number hit 128 percent, the most extreme buyer's market of any major metro area in the United States.

Nationally, sellers outnumbered buyers by 47 percent, itself a record high going back to 2013.

Austin was more than double that.

The chart tells the whole story in a single image.

From 2016 through 2021, buyers and sellers in Austin tracked each other closely, rising and falling in rough balance.

Then the pandemic hit, remote work unlocked geographic freedom, and Austin absorbed a historic wave of California tech workers, venture capital and speculative homebuilders all at once.

Home values climbed from around 350,000 dollars to a peak of 553,000 dollars at the height of the frenzy in mid-2022.

Then interest rates rose, the tech layoffs began, California migration into Austin dropped by roughly 70 percent, and the homebuilding boom that was meant to serve the incoming wave kept delivering finished homes into a market where the buyers had already left.

Home values have now fallen 24 percent from that 2022 peak.

The typical Austin home that went under contract in December 2025 spent 106 days sitting on the market before finding a buyer, the slowest pace ever recorded in data going back to 2012, and nearly double the national average of 60 days.

Sellers outnumber buyers in Austin 17,259 to 7,555 in raw numbers.

That is a market where demand structurally collapsed and supply kept arriving anyway.

The local buyers who stayed behind after the migration boom ended are still largely priced out even after a 24 percent decline, because mortgage rates stayed elevated throughout the entire correction.

The people who were supposed to buy at the reset price cannot afford to borrow at the reset rate.

The people who can afford to borrow are watching prices fall and waiting for the bottom.

That dynamic, frozen buyers, motivated sellers, and a chart showing the gap between them growing wider every month is the definition of a market that has not found its floor yet.

Source: StockMarket.News