Passing up on $Cerebras(CBRS.US) at ~$100B MC.
The bull case is compelling since they're a genuine architectural-paradigm story in AI compute.Highlighted by a stellar list of customers using their chips:- OpenAI: $20B+ contract- $Amazon(AMZN.US): AWS data centers- $Meta Platforms(META.US): Llama API for devs- Perplexity: sonar model- $GSK(GSK.US): biomed models- Mistral AI: Le Chat- Notion: enterprise search- AlphaSense: enterprise searchAll of that diversifies them away from G42 in the UAE which have been the historic rev driver.Regardless, not too sure when I'll look to initiate a position, maybe like the $200 mark?Kinda feel there's some downside risk rn when you layer on top: - $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Vera Rubin volume ramp (H2 2026)- potential Nvidia absorption of Groq- CUDA moatSo current valuation looks like all the execution upside is being aggressively priced-in.
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