Is Market Sentiment Euphoric?

In Rubio's latest statement, I think what the market should really pay attention to isn't "how many more days of negotiations," but rather the line about "the Strait of Hormuz must remain open."

Because what global markets are truly worried about right now is no longer simply the Middle East conflict itself — it's whether energy transportation will be affected.

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains stable, oil prices, shipping costs, and inflationary pressures will all ease, and the market will resume pricing in rate-cut expectations and risk assets.

So the recent volatility in AI, semiconductors, and risk sectors is actually tied to everyone watching the Middle East situation under the surface.

Looking at things now, both sides seem more like they're aiming for a "phased stability" rather than a genuine, complete resolution of all their differences in the short term.

The most critical thing to watch going forward may still be whether the Strait of Hormuz can continue to stay open.

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