Trump says the Iran deal is "LARGELY NEGOTIATED." Oil craters 8%. XOM and CVX both fall 5%. Gold somehow goes up 2%. Markets go full panic-buy on de-escalation. 🚨
24 hours later: "the deal isn't even fully negotiated yet."
If you sold your energy positions after Trump's announcement, you just locked in losses on a rumour. If you bought the dip in oil expecting a bounce, you're now watching the catalyst for that bounce get partially walked back. The frozen assets issue is the real blocker. Iran wants USD 100 billion unfrozen the moment they sign. The US says it happens after the Strait physically reopens. Nobody is moving. The oil market priced in a resolution that hasn't happened yet. That's the trade you're sitting inside right now. 📉
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