On May 23, Trump dropped a market-moving line on social media: the US-Iran deal is "basically done," reportedly including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and he told US negotiators "no rush" to close it. Secretary of State Rubio hinted "good news could come within hours."A day later, Trump walked it back: the deal is "not fully there yet." Tehran stayed cautious, and Tasnim News warned that Washington is still putting up roadblocks on asset unfreezing and other key terms, leaving room for the draft to fall apart.One side: warmer political tone, signs of easier passage through Hormuz, oil and safe-haven flows already front-running the headline. Other side: core disagreements unresolved, the market unsure how much to price in. So which way are you leaning, real deal or another flip?

On May 23, Trump dropped a market-moving line on social media: the US-Iran deal is "basically done," reportedly including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and he told US negotiators "no rush" to close it. Secretary of State Rubio hinted "good news could come within hours."A day later, Trump walked it back: the deal is "not fully there yet." Tehran stayed cautious, and Tasnim News warned that Washington is still putting up roadblocks on asset unfreezing and other key terms, leaving room for the draft to fall apart.One side: warmer political tone, signs of easier passage through Hormuz, oil and safe-haven flows already front-running the headline. Other side: core disagreements unresolved, the market unsure how much to price in. So which way are you leaning, real deal or another flip?

US-Iran Deal Flips In 24h: Real Or Noise?

Oil down 8% on a deal that hasn't been signed. If this falls apart, the snap-back is going to be violent and everyone who sold energy will be scrambling. Not me though. Staying long. 💪