
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said inflation is not yet moving back toward the 2% target and signaled that another rate increase could be warranted this year. The Fed's Beige Book reinforced the message, noting that Middle East conflict is adding to price pressures across several districts while consumer confidence softens.
Translation: the bar for cuts has quietly risen, and at least one voter wants the market to stop assuming the next move is down.
The comments landed in a market that had run nine straight sessions on the assumption that policy was easing from here. The 10 year Treasury yield rose and equities gave back ground, with the Dow down more than 600 points. Officials remain divided, but the hawkish wing is getting louder ahead of Friday's May payrolls report and a new Fed chair's first meeting next week. The jobs number now carries more weight than usual for the rate path.
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