SpaceX at USD 1.75 Trillion: Conviction Trade or the Top?
SpaceX prices Thursday and lists Friday at a fixed USD 135, implying a valuation near USD 1.75 trillion. The order book is reportedly around USD 250 billion, roughly four times oversubscribed. On demand alone, this looks like the most wanted IPO in history. But I want to separate the hype from the setup.
The valuation gap is real
Morningstar pegs fair value closer to USD 780 billion, less than half the IPO price. That is not a rounding error, it is a different thesis. The bull case is that Starlink, which is the profit engine and made up about 69% of revenue in Q1 2026 with over 10 million subscribers, scales into a global utility. The bear case is that you are paying a launch-monopoly premium plus a Starship dream that hasn't been monetized yet.
The India headline matters
Days before listing, India froze Starlink's final commercial approval over security concerns, after terminals were reportedly used in the Iran conflict. India is one of the largest untapped markets for satellite internet. If geopolitics can stall a market that big right before the IPO, it tells you the regulatory risk in this story is not theoretical.
How I'd play it
Oversubscription means allocations will be small and the first-day pop could be sharp, but a 2x gap to fair value plus live regulatory risk is not a "size up" setup for me. I'd rather see how it trades for a few sessions than chase the open. The demand is real. So is the price.
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