Amid the overall macro sentiment of the global market, influenced by persistently high oil prices and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, global assets are exhibiting significant volatility and divergence.

Observation of Major Trends in Core Assets

US Stock Market: Wide Fluctuations, AI Tech Stocks Experience a 'Roller Coaster' Ride

After a sharp decline led by chip stocks the previous day (the Dow fell by nearly 100 points, the Nasdaq fell by nearly 2%), the US stock market attempted a corrective rebound during today's session.

Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed slight gains during the session (about 0.2% - 0.3%), but market sentiment remained fragile. The US market not only has to digest sudden geopolitical conflicts but also faces pressure from the higher-than-expected increase in May's Producer Price Index (PPI).

Technology and Semiconductors: Tech stocks showed divergence after several days of profit-taking. Buying interest in the AI hype still provides support, but volatility at high levels is extreme. Oracle's stock plunged nearly 11% during the session due to massive AI capital expenditures and a large financing plan (issuing bonds and additional shares), weighing on the software and cloud sectors. In contrast, some semiconductor concept stocks that had fallen significantly earlier are looking for technical support.

Asia-Pacific Markets: Hong Kong Stocks Under Pressure, Small-Cap Tech Stocks in A-Shares Relatively Active

Hong Kong Stocks (Hang Seng Index): Continued the recent downtrend, closing lower again today (down about 0.7%, hovering around 24,400 points), marking the sixth consecutive day of decline and hitting lows not seen since late March. Risk aversion due to escalating Middle East tensions and profit-taking in heavyweight tech stocks were the main drags.

A-Share Market: The overall market showed a pattern of weakening volatility and sectoral divergence. However, hard-tech sectors such as semiconductors, electronic chemicals, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and fourth-generation semiconductors were active against the trend. Institutional funds showed signs of clustering in small-cap tech growth sectors and AI infrastructure directions.

Commodities and Bond Market: Safe-Haven and Inflation Logic Resurfacing

Crude Oil: Directly stimulated by geopolitical conflicts, concerns about oil supply intensified. WTI and Brent crude oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude oscillating at high levels around $89.5 per barrel. Due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, high oil prices are exerting sustained pressure on future inflation expectations.

US Treasury Yields: Although the latest CPI data of 0.2% provided a slight breather, due to higher-than-expected PPI and persistently high oil prices, US Treasury yields remained at relatively high levels. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading around 4.52% - 4.55%. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain policy discipline within the year, and even does not rule out the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year.

💡 Technical and Strategic Perspective

The current market is in a critical 'sentiment transition period.'

From the perspective of technicals and fund flows, due to sudden variables in the international situation, volatility at the index level (the VIX index has soared above 20) has significantly amplified. For high-valuation tech and semiconductor sectors, the market's core logic is shifting from pure 'AI vision frenzy' to 'scrutinizing the consumption of cash flow by capital expenditures.'

Before the overall trend fully digests geopolitical headwinds, the market may maintain high-frequency intraday churning. Tracking whether core heavyweight stocks find support and stabilize near the key moving average of 50, and whether oil prices will further push up the inflation slope, will be key in the coming days to determine whether the market can form a short-term bottom.