Micron At USD 982: Is The Memory Supercycle Real Or Just Another Spike?

Micron closed Friday near USD 982, up roughly 200% year to date, and UBS just lifted its target to USD 1,625. The bull case is simple to state and hard to dismiss: 2026 HBM capacity is already sold out, and both DRAM and NAND average selling prices are climbing fast with gross margin guided toward the high 60s.

Why this cycle looks different

Past memory upcycles were demand spikes that supply eventually crushed. This time the demand is tied to AI data centre build-outs that are signing multi-year contracts, and the supply side has been far more disciplined about adding capacity. That combination is what lets a notoriously cyclical business post margins like these.

The risk I keep in view

The thing memory bulls always underestimate is how violently the cycle turns when supply finally catches demand. A USD 1,625 target assumes pricing power holds well into next year. If HBM capacity additions arrive faster than expected, the same operating leverage that is inflating margins now works in reverse.

Where I land

I am long and staying long, but I size it knowing this is still memory. I trim into vertical moves and add on real pullbacks, rather than chasing every green day. The supercycle thesis is credible, but credible is not the same as permanent.