The US stock market showed a divergent and volatile trend, with tech stocks dragging down but the market rebounded sharply pre-market due to positive news from chip giants.

Performance at yesterday's close for the three major indices

Due to renewed pressure on large-cap tech stocks, US stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with a clear "two-eight split" in market structure (approximately two-thirds of individual stocks actually rose, but the indices were dragged down by heavyweight tech stocks):

Nasdaq Index (NASDAQ): Fell 110.40 points, a decline of 0.43%, closing at 25,476.64 points. Weighed down by weakness in heavyweights like Microsoft (-2.3%) and Oracle (-4.6%).

S&P 500 Index: Slightly fell 7.24 points, a decline of 0.1%, closing at 7,358.22 points, retreating from its all-time high for the second consecutive trading day.

Dow Jones Index (DJI): Defied the trend and rose 182.06 points, a gain of 0.35%, closing at 51,848.90 points.

Core trends and key technical dynamics

1. Pre-market bull counterattack: Micron and Qualcomm ignite chip stocks

Pre-market on Thursday, Micron Technology disclosed extremely strong earnings guidance, projecting quarterly revenue to surge to approximately 500 billion USD, far exceeding market expectations of 432 billion USD. Customers even committed 220 billion USD to lock in Micron's memory chips. This positive news directly stimulated the Nasdaq 100 futures to soar over 2% pre-market, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) saw sentiment recover, reversing the short-term correction risk triggered in recent days by tech stocks due to overvaluation.

2. Fund flows and options activity

Implied volatility and hedging: The VIX index is currently fluctuating around 19. Before the PCE data release, the market has priced short-term risks relatively fully. The SKEW (Skew Index) rose to 145.30, reflecting large capital rolling into deep in-the-money puts on the July, August, and September option chains for portfolio hedging.

S&P volatility expectations: According to SPX option pricing, the implied expected move for this week is approximately 82 points (1.10%), roughly locking the volatility range between 7,276 and 7,440.

3. Macro environment and bond market changes

Inflation data outlook: The entire market is currently closely watching the upcoming release of the core PCE inflation data, which will directly determine the Fed's next interest rate moves.

US Treasuries and commodities turmoil: The long end of US Treasuries saw strong buying, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling below 4.40% for the first time in months. Simultaneously, easing geopolitical tensions caused crude oil prices (WTI) to fall below 70 USD; gold also suffered a technical breakdown, falling below the 4,000 USD/ounce mark for the first time since November last year, correcting nearly 29% from its historical high in January this year.

Overall, after two days of profit-taking in tech stocks, the market is undergoing short-term repair today driven by the strong fundamentals of the semiconductor sector. However, given the active high-level hedging option positions, the indices still need to watch the support near the EMA moving averages when approaching the upper range of the box in the short term.