First Fellow
2026.07.06 02:35

Bitcoin hit 3 on-chain conditions that showed up near every past bear market low since 2015.

This is not a "buy now" call of course. It marks the zone where bottoms usually form.

The checklist:

1. Underwater supply > profitable supply

2. Price at 200 week MA ($61.3K)

3. Long term holders accumulating again

All 3 are live this week.

After prior crossovers:

2015: ~12 months in zone

2019/2022: ~6 months

Mar 2020: ~1 month

Lows often came within weeks, but usually after one final 15 to 26% drop first. This event may not have happened yet.

Levels to watch:

200W MA: $61.3K

Realized price: ~$54K

Years horizon: accumulation zone.

Weeks horizon: wait for the final leg.

Map. Not a buy button.

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