First Fellow

First Fellow

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. This old saying is vital when markets are pushing into uncharted territory. Never argue with a trend.

#TradingPhilosophy #Investing

I am not saying $Broadcom(AVGO.US) is under-valued, but actually very surprised it's not at 500 already, same with $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) and 200. Especially if you consider how well $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US) names are going like $AMD(AMD.US), $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), $ASML(ASML.US), $Flex(FLEX.US), $Formfactor(FORM.US), $Lam Research(LRCX.US), etc etc. AVGO & Marvel are super ready for next leg up.

It's that kind of night. Carbonara and Barolo!

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) with a much needed breather candle. An entry around 125-120 offers a good R/R. On the other hand lets say it decides to go to YTD Avwap around 100, I am adding full intended position. That's like adding $Western Digital(WDC.US) around 200 or $Micron Tech(MU.US) around 350, technical levels not fundamentals.

$CloudFlare(NET.US) I am not surprised at this pull back, much needed after the fundamentals looked like this. However I think this pullback might be bought sooner or later. A leader!

$Akamai Tech(AKAM.US) on the other hand looked much better on fundamentals(3rd screenshot), price catching up AH.

It's unfair $Coreweave(CRWV.US) fell 10% after the ER. It should have been much worse if market really looked at those numbers and runway.

The names I want an entry like $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $Apple(AAPL.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), etc ain't dipping. All these "who cares" stocks like $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $IonQ(IONQ.US), $Coreweave(CRWV.US), $Fabrinet(FN.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), etc with over extensions are pulling back.. smh!! $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) is the one of the few attracting dip buys right now, I think.

Two stocks that teach you the power of IPO Avwap.

$Fastly(FSLY.US), outright rejection at the level and heading into Oblivion.

$Sezzle(SEZL.US) Immediate bounce with strength and volume.

I just scanned about 30+ high liquid names, most of them are well extended. All we can do is let them settle and come back to entry rather than chasing them.

A few of those names that's worth waiting for a retracement: $AMD(AMD.US), $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Corning(GLW.US), $Powell Industries(POWL.US), $Sterling Infrastructure(STRL.US), $Caterpillar(CAT.US).

• Dow Jones rose over 600 points amid hopes for a peace deal and strong labor data.

• Oil prices fell nearly 7% due to potential diplomatic solutions. $SPDR Energy Select(XLE.US) $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US)

• $Automatic Data Process(ADP.US) report showed private-sector payrolls increased by 109,000 in April, exceeding expectations.

• Advanced Micro Devices reported a 43% earnings increase, driving stock prices higher. $AMD(AMD.US)

• Walt Disney's earnings beat expectations, with a refined guidance projecting 12% EPS growth. $Disney(DIS.US)

• Lam Research stock is recommended as a strong buy following significant earnings growth. $Lam Research(LRCX.US)

• $AMD(AMD.US)'s strong earnings forecast boosts its equity value by $100 billion, driven by AI growth.

• Samsung Electronics surpasses $1 trillion in market value, benefiting from AI investments.

• $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) parent Alphabet is set to become the world's most valuable company, nearing a $5 trillion market cap.

• AI spending is reshaping the tech market, with data becoming a crucial production factor.

• $AMD(AMD.US) expects significant revenue growth in its data center business, projecting $11.2 billion for Q2.

• The U.S. government plans to review AI models before release to ensure safety and security.

• The SEC proposes allowing companies to report financials semiannually instead of quarterly.

• $SNDL(SNDL.US) market value exceeds $200 billion, driven by demand for AI-related memory chips.

$NAMO at 14, $NYMO at 2.

It's uncanny how these breadth indicators are far from Overbought conditions. In other words, there is a lot of juice or 'dry powder' left. For new traders, don't chase gap-ups like $AMD(AMD.US), $Intel(INTC.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Western Digital(WDC.US), etc. There are still good opportunities, identify them, add to your Watchlist and wait for an entry. That's how you make money. Don't chase!

DON'T SHORT THE MARKET just because it's going up too much.

Sorry to say but that's a stupid move, rookier than a 101 mistake. $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) & $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) will give us signals when that time comes. Market is going up on full thrust in technicals.

$Albemarle(ALB.US) You see a setup that looks as good as this, then realize there is 'E' symbol at the volume bars and get disappointed. Not comfortable touching before Earnings report. An excellent setup otherwise.

$Magnificent Seven ETF - Roundhill(MAGS.US) Category: A

This is the ETF that purely focuses on your most popular Magnificent names like $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $Apple(AAPL.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), etc. Except $Microsoft(MSFT.US) & $Tesla(TSLA.US), remaining are showing immense strength. I think we will see a more upside in the names soon.

PT: 75

• $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) reported a 12% stock increase, while $Meta's stock fell by 10%.

• April saw strong earnings growth for Big Tech, with S&P 500 up 10.8%. $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)

• AI spending is projected to exceed $650 billion in 2026, raising investor skepticism.

• $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) excelled with a 63% growth in cloud revenue, outperforming Microsoft and Amazon.

• $Meta's stock decline attributed to high CapEx and ongoing legal issues despite strong earnings.

• $Amazon(AMZN.US)'s AWS showed its fastest growth in over three years, boosting overall revenue.

• $Apple(AAPL.US) reported record revenue but missed iPhone sales expectations, maintaining a disciplined CapEx approach.

• $Microsoft(MSFT.US) beat earnings expectations but faced a negative outlook due to reliance on OpenAI.

• The market is now differentiating between Big Tech companies based on AI investment returns.

• Analysts remain bullish on $Meta and $Apple(AAPL.US) despite recent stock fluctuations.

$Ciena(CIEN.US) Bears might say, this is trading at 60 times Forward P/E, 300+ P/E, 15 times P/S, Many analyst targets are around $150 blah blah.

I agree with them. I think an epic short is brewing in some of these names but we can't front-run these ideas before technicals breakdown. $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), etc are almost in the similar zone.

• Market rally hesitates due to escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

• $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)'s Q1 earnings and revenue exceeded estimates, driven by growth in its U.S. government business.

• $SPDR S&P Biotech(XBI.US) shows strength.

• Lattice Semiconductor $Lattice Semicon(LSCC.US) and $ON Semiconductor(ON.US) Semiconductor both reported strong earnings, but ON's stock dropped.

• $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) approaches $80,000 following a compromise on the Clarity Act regarding stablecoin yields.

• $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) recovered after a patient experienced liver failure from its weight-loss pill.

• $Mirum Pharmaceuticals(MIRM.US) shares surged to an all-time high due to positive liver disease treatment results.

Rules for new traders.

1. Never oversize. No single position deserves more than 10% of your portfolio.

2. Stay away from earnings lottos. That is pure gambling.

3. Avoid weekly options. The success rate is dangerously low.

4. Don't FOMO. Focus on growing your net worth organically. Look at the momentum names from 2021 that are completely dead now.

#Investing #Trading #StockMarkets

$AXT(AXTI.US) Category: A

I would look at it more on technical lens than fundamentals. Most of the underlying numbers are in deep-red untouchable mode But technically looks amazing. 100-105 is the first profit taking zone.

Next PT's: 125 & 140.

$AMD(AMD.US) is extended on daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly & annually. Earnings might give some breathing room for this monster stock. What a move since the OG breakout at 260.

$Intel(INTC.US) is yet another monster that broke out of multi-decade base. With that said, this is almost at 70 Forward P/E. I am not sure if it's worth touching right now. The beast. 85-80 might offer a good swing trade entry.

Mental health is more important than the markets. The week is over, do not stress out over things you cannot change. Use the weekends to reset your mind. Go for a walk or get a workout. The better you feel the better you will trade.

#Trading #Investing

Chart A: $Intel(INTC.US) - Monster gap up, 3 day consolidation and go.

Chart B: $Maxlinear(MXL.US) - Monster gap up, 3 day consolidation and go.

Chart C: $Bloom Energy(BE.US) - Ready?

Chart D: $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) - Ready?

Chart E: $QCOm - Ready?