Just some thoughts on LPKF Laser / $LPK / $LPKFF earnings:

If you just look at H1 financials, it's pretty ugly:

- Revenue fell 38.3% to €36.5M

- Adjusted EBIT swung to -€10.4M

- FCF at -€11.5M

- Cash fell to €4.0m from €10.0m at end-2025

But it's a little more nuanced than just the financials:

It's all about volume ramp commentary with $LPK and whether they stick to their H2 2026 claims from earlier in the year:

1. "2026 is the positioning year"

The CEO reframed 2026 as positioning, with the ramp in 2027-28.

With first ramp-up orders being placed in H2 2026, which is something they mentioned last quarter also.

Q2 added a LIDE system order from a "leading specialty-glass manufacturer" and one from Penn State University.

Positive read-through imo because a glass maker tuning its materials to $LPK's structuring process presumes $LPK's relative dominance even though the orders are small.

2. TAM

$LPK tripled their 2030 TAM estimates from ~€500M to ~€1.7B.

Attributing the jump to AI-driven HPC wafer start growth + a broadened portfolio spanning glass structuring, package singulation and glass-to-glass bonding.

Seems pretty wild to 3x your TAM, not sure if it's accurate lol.

But seems directionally defensible since $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) raised its own 2030 global semis forecast from around $1T to over $1.5T with AI/HPC expected to drive ~55% of that.

Just feel like the $LPK number is more of a narrative lever which they self-calculated "on the basis of external studies and own analyses."

Seems very convenient to raise your TAM so much while the stock is down over 50% in a month.

3. CEO hedge

To the CEO's credit, his letter warns that it would be "premature to conclude" a breakthrough or that $LPK is firmly established in the supply chain.

Imo, that is the correct posture since nothing in the order book proves any sort of ramp up yet.

Since, as mentioned, volume ramp for $LPK should come in H2 2026 in advance of glass core substrate volume production in 2027.

4. Guidance confirms that H2 ramp

FY26 guidance of €105-120M revenue.

The low end implies H2 revenue of roughly €68.5M against a backlog of just €34.7M, which is essentially a 2x step up on H1 with backlog covering only half.

Again, just confirming what they've said last quarter and this quarter r.e. their H2 production orders increasing.

I do however see some potential dilution risks due to only €4M cash.

Not ideal timing exactly when the thesis inflects in the latter end of 2026...

I don't think a raise into the ramp would be automatically bad though especially since the wider ecosystem corroborates the 2027 framing.

- On 2 July, Samsung Electro-Mechanics signed an agreement to form a glass-core JV with Dongwoo FineChem. Full scale operation targeted for the second half of 2027.

- On 6 July, JNTC signed a TGV commercialisation agreement with Toppan. CEO said the company is targeting mass production in 2027 and Toppan is itself partnered with $AMD(AMD.US) on advanced packaging.

- SKC/Absolics mass production targeted 2027

- $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) CoPoS pilot line slated for 2027

So I don't think that there's much basis right now to scepticism that the glass narrative is running out of steam before any orders have really even begun.

So in terms of timelines:

- H2 2026 first ramp orders

- 2027 glass core mass production + first $LPK revenue conversion

- 2028+ high volume and sustainable margins

- CPO on glass post-2029? Which is rightly excluded from the €1.7B TAM given that CPO architectures remain relatively immature even as $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) COUPE begins its own ramp.