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G
Gary Black Tracker

Sep 9 at 09:10 AM

US stocks searched for direction as Brent crude briefly crossed $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran attacks with no peace talks in sight, lifting gold, silver and bitcoin. 10-year treasury yields ticked higher in front of next week’s Fed meeting. Chip names gained; $Apple(AAPL.US) edged up ahead of its foldable-phone launch today and $Tesla(TSLA.US) slipped after recovering yesterday following last week’s uncertain Cybercab event. A strong August jobs report Friday has raised odds of a September Fed rate hike to 62%, although the I remain skeptical of a move two months before midterms. S&P 2026 earnings ests continue to rise on AI and energy, but at a 21.1x forward P/E the S&P 500 now yields less (4.7%) than 10yr Treasuries (normal equity premium 50-100bp). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation (220x forward P/E vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.3x PEG).

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