US stocks were mixed pre-market as brent crude rose a fifth day to above $100/bbl ahead of the ECB rate decision and $Oracle(ORCL.US) earnings. Treasuries were little changed at 4.84%. $Apple(AAPL.US) gained following its foldable iPhone launch while chip stocks and $Tesla(TSLA.US) slipped after last week’s vague Cybercab event. Strong August jobs data last week has lifted September Fed rate hike odds to 62%, though tomorrow’s CPI could overshadow the strong jobs report. I remain skeptical the Fed will raise rates at next week’s meeting this close to midterm elections. The forward S&P 2026 P/E of 20.9x puts the S&P 500 earnings yield below the 10-year U.S. treasury yield and vs a typical equity yield premium of +50-100 bp. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2027-30 earnings estimates, the continuing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and TSLA’s extreme valuation.