Prediction: New $Apple(AAPL.US) fold phone will become a must-have product for 20- and 30-somethings, will usher in a new iPhone upgrade cycle, substantially increase iPhone ASP, and allows business travelers to bring one small device rather than two.

Most 20-30 somethings will want the new iPhone fold phone as a status symbol and to take and display pictures and videos. The absence of a crease when the phone is unfolded is a huge advantage vs Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Google Google 10 Pro Fold phones in the U.S. and Huawei fold phones in China.

The biggest risk is limited production of the new iPhone fold phone will limit incremental earnings for potentially 6 months and unknown cannibalization of iPad sales.