Tesla Deliveries land tomorrow a.m.: The EV Winter Thaws

• For the Sep quarter, the Street is looking for 461k, down 7% y/y.

• I’m looking for 497k, which would be flat y/y.

• The Street’s looking for a decline because of the tough comp from the US EV tax credit sunset last September.

• The broader EV commentary has turned more cautious recently, with sales of GM EVs down around 70% y/y.

• I believe the opposite is happening, that we’re exiting the EV winter that started three years ago. Tesla demand is stronger than expected based on a combination of continued high gas prices and the word slowly getting out that FSD is the real deal.

• U.S. extended lead times point to stronger demand. I estimate about 40% of deliveries are in the U.S. Since last fall, Model Y and Model 3 lead times have essentially doubled, going from around 5-6 weeks to about 10 weeks. That’s an average across all trims. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

Source: Gene Munster