$Tesla(TSLA.US) unveiled its long-awaited revamped

Roadster EV last night before an invitation only audience at the SpaceX facility in McGregor TX. The car, which leverages $SpaceX(SPCX.US) thruster and suction technology to fly short distances, will offer promised acceleration from 0-60 in under 1 second, making it the fastest production car in the world. While amazing from an engineering and technology standpoint, we estimate the 2029 financial impact assuming 3,000 deliveries per year and a $100K unit profit per car, will be roughly $.06/share, or 1.1% incremental to 2029 consensus adj eps of $5.40. More important is likely to be the halo effect on the Tesla franchise and brand impact created by the prototype's flight capabilities, acceleration and handling which could add far more incremental value from a franchise standpoint.

We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given its extreme valuation (2026 P/E of 230x vs +45% long-term esp growth), negative 2027-2030 earnings revisions, and our view that unsupervised autonomy, the stock’s main value driver, will become increasingly commoditized over the next few years as full self-driving becomes table stakes for remaining in the automobile business.