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I warned everyone that the Roadster unveil would be met with indifference by TSLA investors ($Tesla(TSLA.US) -3.1% vs NDX -2.3%). One, while the engineering and tech were dazzling, the expected financial impact (we estimate +$.06/share incremental eps in 2029) is only +1.1% of consensus 2029 adj eps of $5.40. Second, the halo effect on the $Tesla(TSLA.US) franchise is likely to be limited since only a tiny subset of U.S. drivers care about going from 0-60 in 1 second, or that the vehicle can fly short distances while doing flips mid-air. Third, TSLA always sells on the news after its events and the same principle applies today. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to its extended valuation, continued expected negative revisions, and our view that unsupervised autonomy becomes commoditized.

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