I’ve long felt that a $SpaceX(SPCX.US) - $Tesla(TSLA.US) deal is inevitable since Elon controls 48% of $SpaceX(SPCX.US) as-converted shares and 10.5% of TSLA shares. Since any deal would be $SpaceX(SPCX.US) stock for $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock the deal will not be as compelling as many on X believe, given the massive dilution and all-equity economics. I expect a SPCX offer price in the neighborhood of $420/TSLA share, and as in most stock-for-stock deals will likely get arbitraged down given the approximate 6-12 months needed between a deal announcement and deal close.

I would expect the combined SPCX/TSLA multiple of EBITDA or EPS to follow the acquiring company’s multiple, which in this case is $SpaceX(SPCX.US) and is lower than TSLA’s FY’27 EV/Ebitda multiple (TSLA 72.6x, SPCX 29.4x). All told, I don’t expect a huge windfall for TSLA shareholders on a SPCX/TSLA stock-for-stock deal, although the announcement itself would be positive for TSLA stock.