I expect Tesla's stock price to face downside pressure of over 7.5%, driven by the following core financial risks:

• Core profitability under pressure: Automotive gross margin slipped from 19.2% in Q1 to 16.3% in Q2, with intensifying industry competition squeezing margins further.

• High-margin regulatory items unsustainable: Sales of Regulatory Credits plummeted to $146 million in Q2; such high-profit revenue is unlikely to see a V-shaped rebound on the books in the short term.

• Cash flow deteriorating: As operating profits thin, massive CapEx remains required for AI computing power, Robotaxi infrastructure, and new factory development. Free cash flow (FCF) will likely remain negative or worsen further.

Conclusion: Unless Elon Musk can work another "miracle" in operations and earnings, the current valuation is hard to justify given near-term fundamentals.