$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) +8% on soaring consumer demand for its blockbuster obesity treatments Mounjaro, Zepbound, and new onc…

$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) +8% on soaring consumer demand for its blockbuster obesity treatments Mounjaro, Zepbound, and new once-a-day pill Foundayo. This has led LLY to increase its revenue guidance for the second time in 3 months to $91B-$92B from $85-$87B. I expect further positive revisions as LLY focuses on TAM expansion by reducing adverse gastrointestinal effects of its weight loss drugs and making the product cheaper (LLY Direct, Medicare Bridge program to seniors).

FY’2026 FORECAST

- Sees $91.0B to $92.0B, saw $85.0B to $87.0B vs $88.85B est

- Adj EPS $35.00 to $36.00, saw $35.50 to $36.50, vs $32.66 est - reduction due to small acquisitions

3Q RESULTS

- Adj EPS $7.48 vs. $5.59 est

- Revs $24.4B vs $22.5B est

◦Zepbound rev $5.35B vs $5.01B est

◦Mounjaro rev $10.72B vs $9.95B est

◦Foundayo rev $184M vs $231.2M est

◦Trulicity rev $904M vs $851M est

◦ Jardiance $1.52B vs $852M est

COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT

- CEO comments: Revenue growth was driven by broad global consumer demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, the global launches of Foundayo, expanded U.S. coverage for obesity care and a doubling in our newest products in oncology, immunology and neuroscience."

- Regulatory progress included U.S. FDA approvals of Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with type 2 diabetes;

- Pipeline highlights included positive topline results from a head-to-head Phase 3 trial of retatrutide versus Ozempic 2 mg in adults with type 2 diabetes,

- At a 2027 P/E of 29x, with 2027-30 rev growth of +15% and EPS growth of +20%, $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) still looks cheap despite its YTD perf of +30% and 1-year perf of +58%.