Will FSD be the catalyst for Tesla's stock to start rebounding?

Will FSD be the catalyst for Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock to start rebounding?

Positive news about FSD
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1. It is said that the feedback from people trying the new version of FSD is indeed very positive.

2. Moreover, it is rumored that Tesla will allow users to use it for free for several months.

3. Hopefully, this will attract more users to eventually pay for it.

FSD may not be the catalyst for Tesla to bottom out and rebound
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At the risk of being cursed by Tesla fans, I’d like to point out:

1. From a practical perspective, FSD does not have a significant impact on Tesla’s profitability.

I read an analyst report stating that even if many Tesla users purchase FSD, it would only increase Tesla’s EPS by a few cents.

Using Tesla’s P/E ratio of 60, the impact on the stock price would only be around $6-$12.

2. The key is whether the popularity of FSD can change investors’ pessimistic sentiment toward Tesla’s stock.

A. Current FSD is not true Level 4 autonomous driving.
B. Tesla’s advantage in autonomous driving is gradually eroding.
C. Unless FSD can encourage more people to buy Tesla EVs, its real impact on Tesla’s profitability is limited.

Based on the above analysis, the current FSD alone may not change investors’ overall pessimistic view of Tesla.

3. The decline in Tesla’s sales is not just a one-quarter issue. Elon Musk has already indicated that sales for the entire 2024 will be weak.

Therefore, even if Tesla’s stock rises, it may still face selling pressure from investors looking to take profits or exit.

Tesla’s stock may continue to hover at the bottom, consolidate, or even decline further.

4. Personally, if the above analysis is correct, Tesla’s stock is not yet at a point suitable for long-term bottom-fishing.

Any bottom-fishing would be short-term speculation.